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MLB: Josh Johnson: Worth your betting dollar
2010-07-27
One pitcher has dominated the National League like no other over the course of the last three months and his name is not Tim Lincecum, Roy Halladay, or Ubaldo Jimenez. Rather, it is Josh Johnson, who has rather quietly emerged from the shadow of those other aces to become one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball. He is on a roll like no other of late, and oddsmakers are having trouble gauging just how good he has been when setting their prices. For instance, for Tuesday’s game against Matt Cain and the Giants, bettors at Sportsbook.com can back Johnson’s Marlins at around even money.
The Marlins have climbed back over .500 by going 13-6 since Independence Day. Some of the credit during that surge has to go to Johnson, who is 3-0 in his starts during the surge. However, his complete domination traces back to long beyond that.
Johnson (10-3, 1.61 ERA) has not allowed more than two runs in his last 13 starts, going 7-2 with a 0.79 ERA. The last pitcher to put together such a streak for 14 outings in a row was Houston's Mike Scott in 1986.
In addition, Johnson has allowed one run over his last 28 innings on the road.
Perhaps the biggest signs of how much command a pitcher has had can be shown in his strikeouts and WHIP numbers. When looking at Johnson’s numbers during that stretch, he has struck out 94 hitters in 91-1/3 innings with a WHIP of 0.876. He has also enjoyed 18 straight “quality starts”.
Although Johnson has never beaten the San Francisco Giants, he's never faced them when he's been pitching this well. As the league’s ERA leader, he looks to earn his first victory over the Giants when the Marlins continue a four-game series Tuesday night at AT&T Park.
The right-hander is 0-3 with a 3.00 ERA in four career starts against the Giants (56-44), although the Marlins (50-49) supported him with a total of five runs in those outings.
As an illustration of just how much trouble the oddsmakers are having with Johnson, most pitchers on a run like his would command prices in the -200 or higher range. For tonight, he is listed at just -120, thanks in part to San Francisco’s recent success as well as Matt Cain’s prowess.
The Giants had a four-game win streak snapped with a 4-3 loss Monday. San Francisco fell 3 1/2 games behind first-place San Diego in the NL West. Overall, they have gone 15-4 since July 5th, slightly better than Florida.
Johnson will get his first look at promising Giants rookie Buster Posey, who is batting .461 during a 19-game hitting streak. Posey - whose 39 hits this month lead the majors - is three games shy of matching Hall of Famer Willie McCovey's San Francisco rookie record set in 1959.
Cain has generally been in a good rhythm against Florida, going 3-0 with a 2.83 ERA in six starts. He has won his last two starts after the Giants had dropped his prior five appearances.
Ironically, it is Johnson’s dominance that leads to a powerful StatFox Super Situation indicating that he may be ready to fall finally on Tuesday:
• Play Against - Road favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (FLORIDA) - with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 15 games, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 5 starts. (36-17 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.9%, +25.6 units. Rating = 3*)
For as much as the Marlins have been winning, they have been doing it more with pitching.
However, that said, Johnson still might prove to be the difference, based primarily on the price and the value which comes with a pitcher of his command:
• JOHNSON is 17-7 (+10.6 Units) against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) The average score was JOHNSON 5.3, OPPONENT 3.2 - (Rating = 1*)
First pitch for this highly intriguing contest is set for 10:15 PM ET, or 7:15 PM on the left coast. The total is posted at a paltry 6.5. Even still, the StatFox Game Estimator shows a 3.3-2.9 projected win by the Giants, low enough to still take the game UNDER.
MLB: Toronto tilted towards totals system
2010-06-10
The Toronto Blue Jays have been kind to bettors this season cashing in at +10 units. However, they have dropped three straight and need a victory tonight versus the Tampa Bay Rays to avoid a sweep. Sportsbook.com currently has the visiting Jays as +128 underdogs.
The Blue Jays have a Major League leading 97 home runs and are tied for second in the American League with 34 quality starts.
Since Tampa Bay (39-20, +8.5) has gone from a one of the worst teams in baseball to one the best, Toronto has had almost no success against the Rays. They are 4-19 the last three years vs. Tampa Bay, after being torpedoed 9-0 and 10-1 in the first two games of this series.
The Jays will attempt to stem the tide, sending Brett Cecil (6-2, 3.43 ERA) to the mound. The second year left-hander has allowed a total of three runs in 23 1/3 innings over his last three starts. Cecil owns a four-game winning streak and has held opponents to a .170 batting average in this stretch. Even as well as Cecil has pitched, Toronto will need some offense and is 1-10 after scoring three runs or less three straight games.
Tampa Bay is 18-6 against left-handed starters this season and will look to get Wade Davis (5-5, 5.03) back on track, as he has a 10.80 ERA in his last three starts.
Sportsbook.com has Toronto as +128 money line underdogs, but more importantly the Blue Jays fit a ‘totals’ system for the final game of the series that is listed at 9 runs.
Play UNDER on all teams like Toronto when the total is 9 to 9.5, after scoring one run or less two straight games, against opponent after scoring 10 runs or more.
Dating back 13 years, this system is a money-making 31-8, 79.5 percent; with the average total score of 7.7 runs per game. Other circumstances also lend themselves to this being a winning play as Toronto is 17-5 UNDER after permitting 10 runs or more and Tampa Bay is 10-2 UNDER at Tropicana Field with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 15 games.
With home plate umpire Mike Winters 8-5 UNDER behind the plate, the odds could be your favor for this action this evening.
Don’t let these one-sided trends pass you buy, head over to Sportsbook.com now to wager on this or any other game on the Thursday MLB docket.
MLB: MLB Top Weekend Power Trends 4/9-4/11
2010-04-09
Perhaps not coincidentally, Major League Baseball plays its first full weekend of baseball while the NBA concludes its regular season weekend schedule over the next three days. Obviously it’s too early to know a whole lot about the teams after just a single series, but I’m sure if you ask the managers of every one of the 30 baseball teams, they’d like their clubs to start putting it in gear as soon as possible. With that in mind, it seems strange to think that only one team remains unbeaten, San Francisco, and one winless, Houston, headed into the first weekend. Meanwhile, expected contenders like Boston, Seattle, and the two teams from Los Angeles all looked flat against their first opponents. Let’s take a look at what this first weekend holds in store while also revealing a Top StatFox Power Trend from each series that you’ll want to keep in mind.
The best series in the American League this weekend puts the Yankees in Tampa to face the Rays in a battle of the last two league champions. New York is fresh off another big series versus a division rival in which it took two out of three from the Red Sox in Boston. The Yankees took five out of nine series meetings at “the Trop” last season. The Rays are also 2-1 after their first series, knocking off Baltimore in the first two games of the set while scoring four runs in each contest. Elsewhere in the A.L., expected top contenders will meet in the Central and West divisions as well. In Chicago, the Twins pay a visit, and as you’ll see below, will be trying to combat a recent pattern of struggles on the road versus left-handed starters. The Sox will be throwing John Danks in the series opener on Friday, as well as Mark Buehrle on Sunday, both southpaws. In Texas, the Rangers and Mariners will go head-to-head for three games, with each team trying to rebound from a series loss to open the season.
In the National League, baseball’s only remaining unbeaten team, the Giants, put their streak on the line against what is expected to be one of the league better teams in 2010, the Braves. Atlanta got off to a strong start by taking two of three from the Cubs, including a 16-run outburst on opening day. San Francisco meanwhile, swept the opening series in Houston by doing it both offensively and defensively, outscoring the Astros 18-6 in three games. In Milwaukee, the Brewers and Cardinals will renew their rivalry with three games, two to be televised nationally. Both clubs took two of three in their first season series, with Milwaukee knocking off Colorado and St. Louis turning back Cincinnati. Elsewhere, two-time defending N.L. champ Philadelphia will be in Houston, in a series to be highlighted by a stellar Sunday pitching matchup between Roy Halladay and Roy Oswalt.
As we’ll try to do throughout the rest of the baseball season, here is this weekend’s list of Top StatFox Power Trends that you will want to consider as you build your baseball betting lineup for the weekend.
SAN DIEGO at COLORADO
COLORADO is 32-8 (+17.0 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -150 or more over the last 2 seasons. The average score was COLORADO 6.6, OPPONENT 4.3 - (Rating = 1*)
ATLANTA at SAN FRANCISCO
ATLANTA is 27-16 (+14.8 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. The average score was ATLANTA 5.3, OPPONENT 3.7 - (Rating = 1*)
CHICAGO CUBS at CINCINNATI
CHICAGO CUBS are 8-29 (-19.6 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CHICAGO CUBS 3.3, OPPONENT 5.1 - (Rating = 3*)
WASHINGTON at NY METS
WASHINGTON is 24-57 (-22.3 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +175 over the last 3 seasons. The average score was WASHINGTON 4.1, OPPONENT 5.3 - (Rating = 1*)
LA DODGERS at FLORIDA
GONZALEZ is 45-29 OVER (+15.2 Units) in April games as the manager of FLORIDA. The average score was FLORIDA 5.1, OPPONENT 5.1 - (Rating = 1*)
PHILADELPHIA at HOUSTON
PHILADELPHIA is 10-0 OVER (+10.2 Units) in road games in April games over the last 2 seasons. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 7.2, OPPONENT 5.0 - (Rating = 3*)
ST LOUIS at MILWAUKEE
ST LOUIS is 36-19 (+13.7 Units) against the money line in April games over the last 3 seasons. The average score was ST LOUIS 5.2, OPPONENT 3.8 - (Rating = 0*)
PITTSBURGH at ARIZONA
PITTSBURGH is 22-58 (-25.1 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons. The average score was PITTSBURGH 3.5, OPPONENT 5.2 - (Rating = 1*)
CLEVELAND at DETROIT
DETROIT is 68-80 (-29.1 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 3 seasons. The average score was DETROIT 4.6, OPPONENT 5.1 - (Rating = 1*)
TORONTO at BALTIMORE
BALTIMORE is 47-100 (-35.6 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 3 seasons. The average score was BALTIMORE 4.4, OPPONENT 5.9 - (Rating = 0*)
NY YANKEES at TAMPA BAY
TAMPA BAY is 13-1 (+12.3 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 62%) over the last 3 seasons. The average score was TAMPA BAY 6.6, OPPONENT 3.3 - (Rating = 2*)
SEATTLE at TEXAS
SEATTLE is 38-23 UNDER (+11.7 Units) as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 seasons. The average score was SEATTLE 3.7, OPPONENT 4.5 - (Rating = 0*)
BOSTON at KANSAS CITY
BOSTON is 28-4 (+22.8 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams allowing 5.2 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was BOSTON 7.0, OPPONENT 3.8 - (Rating = 4*)
MINNESOTA at CHI WHITE SOX
MINNESOTA is 20-41 (-22.3 Units) against the money line in road games against left-handed starters over the last 3 seasons. The average score was MINNESOTA 4.7, OPPONENT 5.4 - (Rating = 1*)
OAKLAND at LA ANGELS
OAKLAND is 52-30 UNDER (+17.3 Units) as a road underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 3 seasons. The average score was OAKLAND 3.8, OPPONENT 4.6 - (Rating = 1*)
MLB: Top MLB Weekend Power Trends 8/7-8/9
2009-08-07
The stretch run continues in Major League Baseball with another full set of action this weekend. As the contenders continue to be separated from the pretenders, there are a number of series’ that loom large for some teams’ postseason prospects. In fact, this might be one of the most impactful weekends we’ve seen in awhile in baseball. Read on as we take a look at all of the key matchups, then reveal our weekly list of Top StatFox Power Trends to consider in your wagering over the next few days.
In the N.L. East Division, Philadelphia is comfortably ahead of both the Marlins and Braves. Unfortunately for those chasing teams, they will be on the road taking on the league’s best two clubs. Florida visits the Phillies, and while on the surface it would seem to be an ideal situation for the Marlins to make up ground in a hurry, don’t forget that the defending champs swept a series in Miami just a few weeks back. In two of those games, the Fish were shut out. Philly’s 25-15 divisional record is a big reason they sport a 7-game lead in the standings. The Braves meanwhile will be in Los Angeles taking on the Dodgers, who continue to boast the N.L.’s best record. Both teams seem to be spinning their wheels at this point in the season though, with identical 5-7 marks in their last 12 games.
In the N.L. Central, the division leading Cubs & Cardinals are both on the road, while chasers Milwaukee and Houston will be going head-to-head. Chicago faces the toughest test, playing in Colorado. However, the Cubbies own an 11-4 edge in the head-to-head series over the last three seasons. The Cardinals meanwhile, are in Pittsburgh for a 3-game set. The Pirates have lost five in a row and 10 of their last 12, but did take two-of-three from St. Louis at home back in May. The Brewers/Astros series will be an interesting one in that both teams remain within 5-games of the top spot in the division. Houston has cooled since its mid-season surge, going just 3-9 in its L12 games. Milwaukee meanwhile, comes off a series win in Los Angeles to get back to .500. This begins a critical stretch of 22 straight games against teams with losing records for the Brew Crew. If they hope to repeat their postseason appearance of 2008, they need to make hay now.
In the American League, most eyes will be fixed on New York, where the Yankees and Boston will be continuing a key 4-game set. Entering play on Thursday, New York held a slim 1-1/2 game lead in the East Divison, but boosted that by a game by whipping the Red Sox, 13-6. The win was important for the Yankees not only in the divisional picture, but also because of the fact that it snapped an 8-game losing streak to the Sox this season. New York boasts a 36-17 record at home in 2009, while Boston slipped to 27-28 on the road with Thursday’s loss.
The other two divisions in the Junior Circuit boast big series’ as well. In Detroit, it could be last gasp time for the Twins, as they head into the Motor City chasing 4-1/2 games in the standings. Minnesota has played some of its best ball in divisional games this year though, going 21-14 overall and 6-2 against the Central-leading Tigers. In the West, the Rangers face the same exact scenario as the Twins in terms of standings and home/road dichotomy. They are also chasing 4-1/2 games and headed to the home of the club they are chasing, the Angels. Like Minnesota, Texas also owns a huge edge in divisional record, as the Rangers are 22-12 vs. West foes, while the Angels are just 14-17. They’ll need that pattern to continue if they hope to pick up valuable ground. In the head-to-head series, Texas owns a 7-2 mark this season.
It should be an exciting weekend in Major League Baseball, one filled with fabulous wagering opportunities. Be sure to visit the Game Matchups page daily for the latest key game info, and also don’t neglect the following Top StatFox Power Trends as you build your daily wagering cards.
FLORIDA at PHILADELPHIA
FLORIDA is 11-6 (+10.5 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was FLORIDA 4.9, OPPONENT 3.7 - (Rating = 1*)
ST LOUIS at PITTSBURGH
PITTSBURGH is 9-34 (-20.9 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams allowing 4.3 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was PITTSBURGH 3.7, OPPONENT 5.8 - (Rating = 1*)
ARIZONA at WASHINGTON
WASHINGTON is 24-54 (-28.0 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse over the last 2 seasons. The average score was WASHINGTON 4.1, OPPONENT 5.2 - (Rating = 1*)
MILWAUKEE at HOUSTON
MILWAUKEE is 21-31 (-14.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season. The average score was MILWAUKEE 4.6, OPPONENT 5.4 - (Rating = 1*)
CHICAGO CUBS at COLORADO
COLORADO is 81-52 (+23.5 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was COLORADO 5.3, OPPONENT 4.5 - (Rating = 1*)
NY METS at SAN DIEGO
SAN DIEGO is 11-28 (-17.5 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 6 or less times/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was SAN DIEGO 3.8, OPPONENT 5.6 - (Rating = 1*)
ATLANTA at LA DODGERS
ATLANTA is 21-36 (-17.9 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was ATLANTA 4.4, OPPONENT 4.4 - (Rating = 1*)
CINCINNATI at SAN FRANCISCO
CINCINNATI is 3-15 (-11.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season. The average score was CINCINNATI 3.4, OPPONENT 5.5 - (Rating = 1*)
BOSTON at NY YANKEES
BOSTON is 18-30 (-18.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was BOSTON 4.4, OPPONENT 4.9 - (Rating = 2*)
BALTIMORE at TORONTO
BALTIMORE is 34-72 (-32.6 Units) against the money line vs. a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better over the last 2 seasons. The average score was BALTIMORE 4.3, OPPONENT 5.7 - (Rating = 1*)
MINNESOTA at DETROIT
MINNESOTA is 62-40 (+16.5 Units) against the money line vs. an average bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 over the last 2 seasons. The average score was MINNESOTA 5.0, OPPONENT 4.2 - (Rating = 1*)
CLEVELAND at CHI WHITE SOX
CHI WHITE SOX are 76-50 (+22.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CHI WHITE SOX 5.3, OPPONENT 4.3 - (Rating = 1*)
OAKLAND at KANSAS CITY
KANSAS CITY is 15-4 (+10.6 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was KANSAS CITY 5.3, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 0*)
TEXAS at LA ANGELS
LA ANGELS are 27-13 (+13.9 Units) against the money line vs. a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season. The average score was LA ANGELS 5.7, OPPONENT 4.9 - (Rating = 2*)
TAMPA BAY at SEATTLE
TAMPA BAY is 18-6 UNDER (+11.0 Units) in road games vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was TAMPA BAY 3.8, OPPONENT 4.4 - (Rating = 1*)
MLB: Useful Baseball Betting Info
2009-06-16
Sometimes in sports betting, particularly in baseball, it’s easy to get overwhelmed by the day-to-day grind and possibly overlook some obvious and powerful numbers. For instance, with Interleague play in full swing again this week, did you know that the Minnesota Twins are 19-5 in their last 24 games versus the National League? That would have been nice to know before their weekend series at the Cubs, right? Well, over the next three days, they are hosting Pittsburgh. Here’s some more key facts for you to chew on before you hit the confirm button on your wagers over the next few days.
The Florida Marlins swept Toronto on the road over the weekend and are 4-2 in interleague play in 2009. The Marlins are the top OVER team in baseball at 35-27-3 (56.5 percent) and have a number of atypical numbers that should get every sports bettor thinking. The Fish lead Major League baseball in striking out the most and their pitchers strike out the most batters, adding to natural air conditioning at Landshark Stadium when Florida is home or playing away games.
Florida’s home stadium is considered an almost neutral ballpark for hitters and pitchers, yet Marlins relievers have 5.78 ERA at home and 1.98 ERA on the road. The Florida bullpen has blown eight of 14 save attempts in the home white uniforms yet have converted eight of nine in traveling grays.
With so much talk in recent years about the importance of a quality bullpen, what gets lost is what solid starting staff can do for a team. The San Francisco Giants had the oldest team in baseball and knew they had to become younger and restock the farm system after years of trying to surround Barry Bonds with veteran players trying to win division titles. The strength of the team had become its young starting pitching, with the likes of Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain.
The everyday lineup would become a work in progress; nevertheless, playing in a pitcher’s park, pitching and defense would have to carry the Giants for now. San Fran is the fourth best bet in baseball at +7.1 units and 34-28 on the year. They have accomplished this despite being 28th in runs scored and on-base percentage and dead last in home runs (34).
The laid-back Lincecum (6-1, 2.66 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) has pitched about as expected and Cain, after dropping some weight, has really come into his own (9-1, 2.39, 1.26). Veterans Randy Johnson and Barry Zito have had rocky outings, but have given the team a chance to win as often as not. Only Jonathan Sanchez has been a real disappointment at 2-6. Manager Bruce Bochy has also had the luxury of trotting out the same group of five pitchers all season, a real rarity.
The San Francisco bullpen has pitched very well of late with 1.29 ERA in last seven games, moving up to eight overall. With the starters taking the pressure off the relievers, Bochy is able to go into late innings with set-up men and closer in place, making everyone more productive, explaining why the Giants have won 14 of last 19, despite not much run support.
Maybe Peter Coors of Coors Brewing is right, there is something in the water in the Rocky Mountains. The Colorado Rockies have again put together one of those out of nowhere streaks, with 11 consecutive wins and are within a game of .500 at 31-32 (+0.9). What was the cause and effect for such a drastic turnaround? The players were forced to look in the mirror after Clint Hurdle was jettisoned as manager.
"A lot of us realized that it wasn't him that wasn't out there executing," pitcher Aaron Cook said. The staff ace realized he was among those who was not performing, as one of the most extreme groundball pitchers in baseball was having too many baseball get air under them and getting hit hard. In his last three starts, Cook (5-3, 4.26, 1.39) has given six total runs in 21 innings and surrendered three walks over that period.
Collectively, the Rockies pitchers have not surrendered more than four runs in a single game during this scalding streak and the batters have started ripping the cover off the ball scoring 6.6 runs per game. Colorado has picked up a stunning +13.8 units during this stretch, giving streak-riders plenty to smile about.
Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh are next to visit this team on a Rocky Mountain high, the Rocks are worth watching for what direction they will go once they finally suffer a loss.
Earlier, mentioned the maturation of Matt Cain and another pitcher that has found a groove (a deep one at that) is Detroit’s Justin Verlander. Last year’s disastrous season (11-17, 4.84) had some wondering what direction the talented hard-throwing right-hander was headed. His first four starts brought back those same questions, yielding 21 earned runs in 22 innings. However, the words of new pitching coach Rick Knapp started to sink in and on April 27 at home against the Yankees, Verlander pitched seven shutout innings, with nine K’s and no walks. Knapp slowed down Verlander’s delivery and suddenly pitches that were up in the zone, were back down, with far greater control. The confidence returned and the speed variation on the breaking pitches was being spotted again.
The 26-year has won his last seven decisions and the Tigers are 8-2 when #35 takes the ball since his fourth start of the year. Verlander has been so dominant in last nine starts; he has 1.10 ERA and leads the American League in hitters swing and missing with 182. (Thanks, Inside Edge) Detroit is 7-1 (+5.4 units) when Verlander starts and he is the only starting pitcher to break triple digits on the radar gun twice in 2009.
MLB: Dodgers Underdog in the Series and Tonight
2008-10-15
Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Chad Billingsley has a gargantuan responsibility tonight, not only must he beat Philadelphia to keep his team from being eliminated for the National League pennant, he needs to go deep into the game to do so, since the Dodgers bullpen proved to be easier to score on than an experienced Madden 08 game player with full year behind him. If that wasn’t enough, the respect of his teammates is also at stake having in their mind not backed up Manny Ramirez when he was tossed at in Game 2.
Billingsley (17-11, 3.38 ERA) looks to atone for his awful Game 2 performance. He allowed a season-high eight runs, eight hits and three walks in 2 1/3 innings. The Los Angeles bullpen is also seeking atonement, giving up five runs Monday while allowing six hits and three walks in four innings. Previous to this debacle, they had thrown 11 1/3 scoreless innings in this series. All these negatives occurring are not a complete surprise with L.A. 16-23 vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs a game and 13-20 teams averaging 1.25 or more home runs a game this season.
Philadelphia is nicely situated to close out the series, having their ace Cole Hamels (16-10, 2.97) as the starting pitcher. Hamels has won five of his last seven starts (both playoff appearances) and has allowed more than two runs just once in this streak. The lefty enters Wednesday knowing a similar performance could be enough to send Philadelphia to its first World Series since 1993. “This one is definitely important just for the fact that we almost are there,” Hamels said. “We’re almost to the World Series. We’re almost at the chance of becoming world champions.”
Sportsbook.com has the Phillies as -115 road favorites with a total of Un7.5. There are many reasons to believe they can close this series out. Start with momentum they have created being 14-4 after win. They have won eight of last 11 against right-hand starters and are 12-3 after a day off.
The total may look and feel like it should be Under, but not necessarily. In 11 of the last dozen games played at Dodger Stadium between these two teams the Over has been the right choice. Los Angeles is 9-3-1 Over when facing a team with a winning record and the Phillies are 7-2 Over after allowing five or more runs. For good measure, Philadelphia is 10-2 against the money line after three or more consecutive Overs this season.
It’s all on the line for the Dodgers who are really up against it, as the team with a 3-1 lead in the NLCS has won nine of last 11 series.
Tonight’s opening pitch is set for 8:22 Eastern in Fox.
StatFox Power Line – Philadelphia -117
MLB: Baseball Buy or Sell Teams at Trade Deadline
2008-07-30
With the trade deadline fast approaching on Thursday night, some Major League Baseball teams are in a quandary to sell off assets in order to build for the future or to buy in hopes of hanging around and maybe get hot to sneak off with a division title. Whichever the case, the buyers and sellers could be much different teams on Friday, both roster-wise, and psychologically. Be sure to take note before placing your wagers in the near future.
In the last few years, Houston and Colorado are two teams that literally came out of nowhere and ended up playing in World Series. Cleveland has already hung the white flag outside the tepee; here is a look at what other teams might be thinking.
Many baseball beat writers and those broadcasting games look at the standings and see Atlanta eight games back in the NL East and wonder why they are ridding themselves of talented players. This Braves team no longer has Ted Turner as Chief Wahoo and TBS network behind them. These Braves are owned by Liberty Media, who is more concerned about profit/loss spreadsheets than wins and losses. About the only thing this Atlanta team has with the past is manager Bobby Cox. With no Chipper Jones or Bob McCann in the lineup and Tim Hudson likely gone for the season, maybe Atlanta should trade for Greg Maddux and have him sit in the dugout with John Smoltz and Tom Glavine, just like a Rolling Stones reunion tour.
Atlanta – SELL
In case you haven’t noticed, the Oakland A’s have rotating banner for center field camera to pick up when showing pitcher throwing to batter – Will trade players for food. Oakland has done great work in developing pitching talent, allowing them to trade higher priced pitchers for prospects. The new batch of pitchers look pretty good, however are making youthful mistakes, as the A’s are 8-15 in July. Even with descent starters, where are the quality everyday ball players? Oakland is taking the term “small ball” to new lows. The A’s have the lowest batting average in the AL and are next to last in runs scored. Remember a prerequisite of “small ball” was hitters making contact; Oakland hitters have struck out the most in the junior circuit, averaging almost eight whiffs a game. With the new stadium seating around 32,000, where will the revenue streams come from to put better product on the field unless they charge $200 per seat a game?
Oakland– SELL
Texas has been among the four best teams in the American League the last three months and has pulled into second place in the AL West. The Rangers are not about to catch the Angels and are still in wild card contention being five games back. The Rangers are like your local softball team in first place, they just bludgeon the baseball. They lead the league in hitting and runs scored by a large margin. The problem for Texas is pitching, since they have been looking to put together even a fairly average staff, since a lame duck president used to be the majority owner. Leading winner Vincente Padilla (12-5) is available, but only for a young pitcher who can possibly start this year and must be in rotation in 2009. A pretty good short home favorite or road underdog when they are in hitting groove.
Texas – Buy
You keep waiting for Toronto to click, unfortunately every streak of three games of 10 hits or more, is immediately followed by five outings of three or fewer runs. Pitcher A.J. Burnett looks like a waiver deal in the latter part of August, as these Blue Jays never take flight unless they score four or more runs.
Toronto-Sell
The Colorado Rockies titillated fans winning 9 of 10 games, before losing series at Pittsburgh. In most normal years, a team would have given up long ago with the kind of record the Rockies have, at least to their advantage the NL West is far less dangerous than seven days of Shark Week on the Discovery Channel. It might be time for a little honesty for Colorado, unless they can muster another miracle run which would lead to new phrase called “Rockies Rush” when a team wins 15-20 games in a row late in the season to steal a division title. If front-running Arizona plays .500 the rest of the season to finish 82-80, this would entail Clint Hurdle’s club to close 35-19 to steal another division crown. After last year, possible, yes; likely, no.
Colorado - Sell
MLB: Bet these pitchers OVER
2008-06-23
For most casual baseball fans, the game is too slow, with not enough action and more runs needed to be scored. Don’t tell that to this group of pitchers, whose OVER numbers are more like a slow pitch softball player’s.
While major league baseball has added the thrilling aspect of players and fans to be impaled by exploding maple bats, most prefer to see runs being scored either going to the ballpark or on television. Many lukewarm bettors of baseball tend to bet Over the total, since that is their preferred interest in the sport as a whole. Since pitching is such an important aspect of baseball, here is a current roster of the best pitchers to wager on for games exceeding the total.
What fits our criterion is a starting hurler still in the rotation, despite surrendering a ton of runs and his team playing Over continually when he takes the horsehide. A perfect example is Tom Gorzelanny (5-6, 6.59 ERA) of Pittsburgh. The 25-year left-hander made serious progress in 2007, with 14-10 record and respectable 3.88 ERA. With above average fastball and slider, this was supposed to be his breakout season. Instead, he has been less effective than SPF30 in Death Valley, CA. His 6.59 earned run average is easily determined by allowing more walks than strikeouts (50-39) on the season, while already seeing 12 balls going over the fence. On the year, Gorzelanny is 11-3 OVER with the Bucs, including perfection on the road with 7-0 OVER mark. Of course when you have 8.63 road ERA, Over's come much easier.
It's hard to believe Livan Hernandez (8-4, 5.23) is only 33 years old, since it seems he's been around longer than Jamie Moyer. Packing a robust 245 pounds on a 6'2 frame, Hernandez no longer has overpowering stuff and pitches out of the stretch more than most relievers. He's allowed 150 base hits in just over 103 innings of work, as opposing teams are hitting almost .350 against him. It doesn't matter right or left-handed batters either, as the former hits .345 and the latter .351 versus Hernandez. Miraculously, Minnesota has won 12 of his 17 starts, thanks in part to scoring five or more runs in a dozen of his trips up the hill. Livan and the Twins are 12-5 OVER, as they have favorites just once when manager Ron Gardenhire handed him the ball, yet have won 11 of 16 times. Presently, playing a Twins and Over parlay with Hernandez pitching has solid winning potential.
Another hurler who has produced great results for those preferring to wager Over the number is Texas' Vincente Padilla (10-3, 3.74). The Nicaragua native has had a career easier to read than Cat in the Hat. If Padilla pitches 200 or more innings in a season, injures will follow. After chucking 200 in 2006, he managed just 120 innings last season with sore arm.
Rejuvenated, he's exceptional in notorious hitters' park in Arlington. Texas is 11-5 OVER when Padilla is starting pitcher and has won 13 of his 16 trips. In fact, the Rangers have won 10 of his 11 last starts, but scoring almost 7.5 runs per game will help the cause. Texas is 7-3 OVER as underdog, winning eight times with 30-year old on the mound.
Neither Philadelphia's Kyle Kendrick (6-3, 5.06) nor the White Sox Javier Vazquez (7-6, 4.50) is at the top of respective team rotation, yet both are good Over bets with 10-5 mark. Kendrick is still a young pitcher at 23, however needs to start missing more bats if he desires lengthy professional career. This season he's given up 93 hits in just over 78 innings and averages only a touch over two strikeouts per start. He's backed up with potent Phillies offense and is 7-3 OVER when favored.
After beginning the season well, the Sox Vazquez has struggled mightily in June. He is 2-2, yet has surrendered 19 runs in four starts covering 23.1 innings. Included have been 29 hits, 12 walks and six long balls. Vazquez is 5-1, 4.78 ERA at U.S. Cellular Field and the Pale Hose are 6-0 OVER in those encounters. Like all the pitchers mentioned, he receives tremendous run support, with the Sox scoring 9.1 RPG when Vazquez is the man on the mound on the south side of Chicago.
2010-07-27
One pitcher has dominated the National League like no other over the course of the last three months and his name is not Tim Lincecum, Roy Halladay, or Ubaldo Jimenez. Rather, it is Josh Johnson, who has rather quietly emerged from the shadow of those other aces to become one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball. He is on a roll like no other of late, and oddsmakers are having trouble gauging just how good he has been when setting their prices. For instance, for Tuesday’s game against Matt Cain and the Giants, bettors at Sportsbook.com can back Johnson’s Marlins at around even money.
The Marlins have climbed back over .500 by going 13-6 since Independence Day. Some of the credit during that surge has to go to Johnson, who is 3-0 in his starts during the surge. However, his complete domination traces back to long beyond that.
Johnson (10-3, 1.61 ERA) has not allowed more than two runs in his last 13 starts, going 7-2 with a 0.79 ERA. The last pitcher to put together such a streak for 14 outings in a row was Houston's Mike Scott in 1986.
In addition, Johnson has allowed one run over his last 28 innings on the road.
Perhaps the biggest signs of how much command a pitcher has had can be shown in his strikeouts and WHIP numbers. When looking at Johnson’s numbers during that stretch, he has struck out 94 hitters in 91-1/3 innings with a WHIP of 0.876. He has also enjoyed 18 straight “quality starts”.
Although Johnson has never beaten the San Francisco Giants, he's never faced them when he's been pitching this well. As the league’s ERA leader, he looks to earn his first victory over the Giants when the Marlins continue a four-game series Tuesday night at AT&T Park.
The right-hander is 0-3 with a 3.00 ERA in four career starts against the Giants (56-44), although the Marlins (50-49) supported him with a total of five runs in those outings.
As an illustration of just how much trouble the oddsmakers are having with Johnson, most pitchers on a run like his would command prices in the -200 or higher range. For tonight, he is listed at just -120, thanks in part to San Francisco’s recent success as well as Matt Cain’s prowess.
The Giants had a four-game win streak snapped with a 4-3 loss Monday. San Francisco fell 3 1/2 games behind first-place San Diego in the NL West. Overall, they have gone 15-4 since July 5th, slightly better than Florida.
Johnson will get his first look at promising Giants rookie Buster Posey, who is batting .461 during a 19-game hitting streak. Posey - whose 39 hits this month lead the majors - is three games shy of matching Hall of Famer Willie McCovey's San Francisco rookie record set in 1959.
Cain has generally been in a good rhythm against Florida, going 3-0 with a 2.83 ERA in six starts. He has won his last two starts after the Giants had dropped his prior five appearances.
Ironically, it is Johnson’s dominance that leads to a powerful StatFox Super Situation indicating that he may be ready to fall finally on Tuesday:
• Play Against - Road favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (FLORIDA) - with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 15 games, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 5 starts. (36-17 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.9%, +25.6 units. Rating = 3*)
For as much as the Marlins have been winning, they have been doing it more with pitching.
However, that said, Johnson still might prove to be the difference, based primarily on the price and the value which comes with a pitcher of his command:
• JOHNSON is 17-7 (+10.6 Units) against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) The average score was JOHNSON 5.3, OPPONENT 3.2 - (Rating = 1*)
First pitch for this highly intriguing contest is set for 10:15 PM ET, or 7:15 PM on the left coast. The total is posted at a paltry 6.5. Even still, the StatFox Game Estimator shows a 3.3-2.9 projected win by the Giants, low enough to still take the game UNDER.
MLB: Toronto tilted towards totals system
2010-06-10
The Toronto Blue Jays have been kind to bettors this season cashing in at +10 units. However, they have dropped three straight and need a victory tonight versus the Tampa Bay Rays to avoid a sweep. Sportsbook.com currently has the visiting Jays as +128 underdogs.
The Blue Jays have a Major League leading 97 home runs and are tied for second in the American League with 34 quality starts.
Since Tampa Bay (39-20, +8.5) has gone from a one of the worst teams in baseball to one the best, Toronto has had almost no success against the Rays. They are 4-19 the last three years vs. Tampa Bay, after being torpedoed 9-0 and 10-1 in the first two games of this series.
The Jays will attempt to stem the tide, sending Brett Cecil (6-2, 3.43 ERA) to the mound. The second year left-hander has allowed a total of three runs in 23 1/3 innings over his last three starts. Cecil owns a four-game winning streak and has held opponents to a .170 batting average in this stretch. Even as well as Cecil has pitched, Toronto will need some offense and is 1-10 after scoring three runs or less three straight games.
Tampa Bay is 18-6 against left-handed starters this season and will look to get Wade Davis (5-5, 5.03) back on track, as he has a 10.80 ERA in his last three starts.
Sportsbook.com has Toronto as +128 money line underdogs, but more importantly the Blue Jays fit a ‘totals’ system for the final game of the series that is listed at 9 runs.
Play UNDER on all teams like Toronto when the total is 9 to 9.5, after scoring one run or less two straight games, against opponent after scoring 10 runs or more.
Dating back 13 years, this system is a money-making 31-8, 79.5 percent; with the average total score of 7.7 runs per game. Other circumstances also lend themselves to this being a winning play as Toronto is 17-5 UNDER after permitting 10 runs or more and Tampa Bay is 10-2 UNDER at Tropicana Field with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 15 games.
With home plate umpire Mike Winters 8-5 UNDER behind the plate, the odds could be your favor for this action this evening.
Don’t let these one-sided trends pass you buy, head over to Sportsbook.com now to wager on this or any other game on the Thursday MLB docket.
MLB: MLB Top Weekend Power Trends 4/9-4/11
2010-04-09
Perhaps not coincidentally, Major League Baseball plays its first full weekend of baseball while the NBA concludes its regular season weekend schedule over the next three days. Obviously it’s too early to know a whole lot about the teams after just a single series, but I’m sure if you ask the managers of every one of the 30 baseball teams, they’d like their clubs to start putting it in gear as soon as possible. With that in mind, it seems strange to think that only one team remains unbeaten, San Francisco, and one winless, Houston, headed into the first weekend. Meanwhile, expected contenders like Boston, Seattle, and the two teams from Los Angeles all looked flat against their first opponents. Let’s take a look at what this first weekend holds in store while also revealing a Top StatFox Power Trend from each series that you’ll want to keep in mind.
The best series in the American League this weekend puts the Yankees in Tampa to face the Rays in a battle of the last two league champions. New York is fresh off another big series versus a division rival in which it took two out of three from the Red Sox in Boston. The Yankees took five out of nine series meetings at “the Trop” last season. The Rays are also 2-1 after their first series, knocking off Baltimore in the first two games of the set while scoring four runs in each contest. Elsewhere in the A.L., expected top contenders will meet in the Central and West divisions as well. In Chicago, the Twins pay a visit, and as you’ll see below, will be trying to combat a recent pattern of struggles on the road versus left-handed starters. The Sox will be throwing John Danks in the series opener on Friday, as well as Mark Buehrle on Sunday, both southpaws. In Texas, the Rangers and Mariners will go head-to-head for three games, with each team trying to rebound from a series loss to open the season.
In the National League, baseball’s only remaining unbeaten team, the Giants, put their streak on the line against what is expected to be one of the league better teams in 2010, the Braves. Atlanta got off to a strong start by taking two of three from the Cubs, including a 16-run outburst on opening day. San Francisco meanwhile, swept the opening series in Houston by doing it both offensively and defensively, outscoring the Astros 18-6 in three games. In Milwaukee, the Brewers and Cardinals will renew their rivalry with three games, two to be televised nationally. Both clubs took two of three in their first season series, with Milwaukee knocking off Colorado and St. Louis turning back Cincinnati. Elsewhere, two-time defending N.L. champ Philadelphia will be in Houston, in a series to be highlighted by a stellar Sunday pitching matchup between Roy Halladay and Roy Oswalt.
As we’ll try to do throughout the rest of the baseball season, here is this weekend’s list of Top StatFox Power Trends that you will want to consider as you build your baseball betting lineup for the weekend.
SAN DIEGO at COLORADO
COLORADO is 32-8 (+17.0 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -150 or more over the last 2 seasons. The average score was COLORADO 6.6, OPPONENT 4.3 - (Rating = 1*)
ATLANTA at SAN FRANCISCO
ATLANTA is 27-16 (+14.8 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. The average score was ATLANTA 5.3, OPPONENT 3.7 - (Rating = 1*)
CHICAGO CUBS at CINCINNATI
CHICAGO CUBS are 8-29 (-19.6 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CHICAGO CUBS 3.3, OPPONENT 5.1 - (Rating = 3*)
WASHINGTON at NY METS
WASHINGTON is 24-57 (-22.3 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +175 over the last 3 seasons. The average score was WASHINGTON 4.1, OPPONENT 5.3 - (Rating = 1*)
LA DODGERS at FLORIDA
GONZALEZ is 45-29 OVER (+15.2 Units) in April games as the manager of FLORIDA. The average score was FLORIDA 5.1, OPPONENT 5.1 - (Rating = 1*)
PHILADELPHIA at HOUSTON
PHILADELPHIA is 10-0 OVER (+10.2 Units) in road games in April games over the last 2 seasons. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 7.2, OPPONENT 5.0 - (Rating = 3*)
ST LOUIS at MILWAUKEE
ST LOUIS is 36-19 (+13.7 Units) against the money line in April games over the last 3 seasons. The average score was ST LOUIS 5.2, OPPONENT 3.8 - (Rating = 0*)
PITTSBURGH at ARIZONA
PITTSBURGH is 22-58 (-25.1 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons. The average score was PITTSBURGH 3.5, OPPONENT 5.2 - (Rating = 1*)
CLEVELAND at DETROIT
DETROIT is 68-80 (-29.1 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 3 seasons. The average score was DETROIT 4.6, OPPONENT 5.1 - (Rating = 1*)
TORONTO at BALTIMORE
BALTIMORE is 47-100 (-35.6 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 3 seasons. The average score was BALTIMORE 4.4, OPPONENT 5.9 - (Rating = 0*)
NY YANKEES at TAMPA BAY
TAMPA BAY is 13-1 (+12.3 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 62%) over the last 3 seasons. The average score was TAMPA BAY 6.6, OPPONENT 3.3 - (Rating = 2*)
SEATTLE at TEXAS
SEATTLE is 38-23 UNDER (+11.7 Units) as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 seasons. The average score was SEATTLE 3.7, OPPONENT 4.5 - (Rating = 0*)
BOSTON at KANSAS CITY
BOSTON is 28-4 (+22.8 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams allowing 5.2 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was BOSTON 7.0, OPPONENT 3.8 - (Rating = 4*)
MINNESOTA at CHI WHITE SOX
MINNESOTA is 20-41 (-22.3 Units) against the money line in road games against left-handed starters over the last 3 seasons. The average score was MINNESOTA 4.7, OPPONENT 5.4 - (Rating = 1*)
OAKLAND at LA ANGELS
OAKLAND is 52-30 UNDER (+17.3 Units) as a road underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 3 seasons. The average score was OAKLAND 3.8, OPPONENT 4.6 - (Rating = 1*)
MLB: Top MLB Weekend Power Trends 8/7-8/9
2009-08-07
The stretch run continues in Major League Baseball with another full set of action this weekend. As the contenders continue to be separated from the pretenders, there are a number of series’ that loom large for some teams’ postseason prospects. In fact, this might be one of the most impactful weekends we’ve seen in awhile in baseball. Read on as we take a look at all of the key matchups, then reveal our weekly list of Top StatFox Power Trends to consider in your wagering over the next few days.
In the N.L. East Division, Philadelphia is comfortably ahead of both the Marlins and Braves. Unfortunately for those chasing teams, they will be on the road taking on the league’s best two clubs. Florida visits the Phillies, and while on the surface it would seem to be an ideal situation for the Marlins to make up ground in a hurry, don’t forget that the defending champs swept a series in Miami just a few weeks back. In two of those games, the Fish were shut out. Philly’s 25-15 divisional record is a big reason they sport a 7-game lead in the standings. The Braves meanwhile will be in Los Angeles taking on the Dodgers, who continue to boast the N.L.’s best record. Both teams seem to be spinning their wheels at this point in the season though, with identical 5-7 marks in their last 12 games.
In the N.L. Central, the division leading Cubs & Cardinals are both on the road, while chasers Milwaukee and Houston will be going head-to-head. Chicago faces the toughest test, playing in Colorado. However, the Cubbies own an 11-4 edge in the head-to-head series over the last three seasons. The Cardinals meanwhile, are in Pittsburgh for a 3-game set. The Pirates have lost five in a row and 10 of their last 12, but did take two-of-three from St. Louis at home back in May. The Brewers/Astros series will be an interesting one in that both teams remain within 5-games of the top spot in the division. Houston has cooled since its mid-season surge, going just 3-9 in its L12 games. Milwaukee meanwhile, comes off a series win in Los Angeles to get back to .500. This begins a critical stretch of 22 straight games against teams with losing records for the Brew Crew. If they hope to repeat their postseason appearance of 2008, they need to make hay now.
In the American League, most eyes will be fixed on New York, where the Yankees and Boston will be continuing a key 4-game set. Entering play on Thursday, New York held a slim 1-1/2 game lead in the East Divison, but boosted that by a game by whipping the Red Sox, 13-6. The win was important for the Yankees not only in the divisional picture, but also because of the fact that it snapped an 8-game losing streak to the Sox this season. New York boasts a 36-17 record at home in 2009, while Boston slipped to 27-28 on the road with Thursday’s loss.
The other two divisions in the Junior Circuit boast big series’ as well. In Detroit, it could be last gasp time for the Twins, as they head into the Motor City chasing 4-1/2 games in the standings. Minnesota has played some of its best ball in divisional games this year though, going 21-14 overall and 6-2 against the Central-leading Tigers. In the West, the Rangers face the same exact scenario as the Twins in terms of standings and home/road dichotomy. They are also chasing 4-1/2 games and headed to the home of the club they are chasing, the Angels. Like Minnesota, Texas also owns a huge edge in divisional record, as the Rangers are 22-12 vs. West foes, while the Angels are just 14-17. They’ll need that pattern to continue if they hope to pick up valuable ground. In the head-to-head series, Texas owns a 7-2 mark this season.
It should be an exciting weekend in Major League Baseball, one filled with fabulous wagering opportunities. Be sure to visit the Game Matchups page daily for the latest key game info, and also don’t neglect the following Top StatFox Power Trends as you build your daily wagering cards.
FLORIDA at PHILADELPHIA
FLORIDA is 11-6 (+10.5 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was FLORIDA 4.9, OPPONENT 3.7 - (Rating = 1*)
ST LOUIS at PITTSBURGH
PITTSBURGH is 9-34 (-20.9 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams allowing 4.3 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was PITTSBURGH 3.7, OPPONENT 5.8 - (Rating = 1*)
ARIZONA at WASHINGTON
WASHINGTON is 24-54 (-28.0 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse over the last 2 seasons. The average score was WASHINGTON 4.1, OPPONENT 5.2 - (Rating = 1*)
MILWAUKEE at HOUSTON
MILWAUKEE is 21-31 (-14.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season. The average score was MILWAUKEE 4.6, OPPONENT 5.4 - (Rating = 1*)
CHICAGO CUBS at COLORADO
COLORADO is 81-52 (+23.5 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was COLORADO 5.3, OPPONENT 4.5 - (Rating = 1*)
NY METS at SAN DIEGO
SAN DIEGO is 11-28 (-17.5 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 6 or less times/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was SAN DIEGO 3.8, OPPONENT 5.6 - (Rating = 1*)
ATLANTA at LA DODGERS
ATLANTA is 21-36 (-17.9 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was ATLANTA 4.4, OPPONENT 4.4 - (Rating = 1*)
CINCINNATI at SAN FRANCISCO
CINCINNATI is 3-15 (-11.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season. The average score was CINCINNATI 3.4, OPPONENT 5.5 - (Rating = 1*)
BOSTON at NY YANKEES
BOSTON is 18-30 (-18.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was BOSTON 4.4, OPPONENT 4.9 - (Rating = 2*)
BALTIMORE at TORONTO
BALTIMORE is 34-72 (-32.6 Units) against the money line vs. a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better over the last 2 seasons. The average score was BALTIMORE 4.3, OPPONENT 5.7 - (Rating = 1*)
MINNESOTA at DETROIT
MINNESOTA is 62-40 (+16.5 Units) against the money line vs. an average bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 over the last 2 seasons. The average score was MINNESOTA 5.0, OPPONENT 4.2 - (Rating = 1*)
CLEVELAND at CHI WHITE SOX
CHI WHITE SOX are 76-50 (+22.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CHI WHITE SOX 5.3, OPPONENT 4.3 - (Rating = 1*)
OAKLAND at KANSAS CITY
KANSAS CITY is 15-4 (+10.6 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was KANSAS CITY 5.3, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 0*)
TEXAS at LA ANGELS
LA ANGELS are 27-13 (+13.9 Units) against the money line vs. a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season. The average score was LA ANGELS 5.7, OPPONENT 4.9 - (Rating = 2*)
TAMPA BAY at SEATTLE
TAMPA BAY is 18-6 UNDER (+11.0 Units) in road games vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was TAMPA BAY 3.8, OPPONENT 4.4 - (Rating = 1*)
MLB: Useful Baseball Betting Info
2009-06-16
Sometimes in sports betting, particularly in baseball, it’s easy to get overwhelmed by the day-to-day grind and possibly overlook some obvious and powerful numbers. For instance, with Interleague play in full swing again this week, did you know that the Minnesota Twins are 19-5 in their last 24 games versus the National League? That would have been nice to know before their weekend series at the Cubs, right? Well, over the next three days, they are hosting Pittsburgh. Here’s some more key facts for you to chew on before you hit the confirm button on your wagers over the next few days.
The Florida Marlins swept Toronto on the road over the weekend and are 4-2 in interleague play in 2009. The Marlins are the top OVER team in baseball at 35-27-3 (56.5 percent) and have a number of atypical numbers that should get every sports bettor thinking. The Fish lead Major League baseball in striking out the most and their pitchers strike out the most batters, adding to natural air conditioning at Landshark Stadium when Florida is home or playing away games.
Florida’s home stadium is considered an almost neutral ballpark for hitters and pitchers, yet Marlins relievers have 5.78 ERA at home and 1.98 ERA on the road. The Florida bullpen has blown eight of 14 save attempts in the home white uniforms yet have converted eight of nine in traveling grays.
With so much talk in recent years about the importance of a quality bullpen, what gets lost is what solid starting staff can do for a team. The San Francisco Giants had the oldest team in baseball and knew they had to become younger and restock the farm system after years of trying to surround Barry Bonds with veteran players trying to win division titles. The strength of the team had become its young starting pitching, with the likes of Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain.
The everyday lineup would become a work in progress; nevertheless, playing in a pitcher’s park, pitching and defense would have to carry the Giants for now. San Fran is the fourth best bet in baseball at +7.1 units and 34-28 on the year. They have accomplished this despite being 28th in runs scored and on-base percentage and dead last in home runs (34).
The laid-back Lincecum (6-1, 2.66 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) has pitched about as expected and Cain, after dropping some weight, has really come into his own (9-1, 2.39, 1.26). Veterans Randy Johnson and Barry Zito have had rocky outings, but have given the team a chance to win as often as not. Only Jonathan Sanchez has been a real disappointment at 2-6. Manager Bruce Bochy has also had the luxury of trotting out the same group of five pitchers all season, a real rarity.
The San Francisco bullpen has pitched very well of late with 1.29 ERA in last seven games, moving up to eight overall. With the starters taking the pressure off the relievers, Bochy is able to go into late innings with set-up men and closer in place, making everyone more productive, explaining why the Giants have won 14 of last 19, despite not much run support.
Maybe Peter Coors of Coors Brewing is right, there is something in the water in the Rocky Mountains. The Colorado Rockies have again put together one of those out of nowhere streaks, with 11 consecutive wins and are within a game of .500 at 31-32 (+0.9). What was the cause and effect for such a drastic turnaround? The players were forced to look in the mirror after Clint Hurdle was jettisoned as manager.
"A lot of us realized that it wasn't him that wasn't out there executing," pitcher Aaron Cook said. The staff ace realized he was among those who was not performing, as one of the most extreme groundball pitchers in baseball was having too many baseball get air under them and getting hit hard. In his last three starts, Cook (5-3, 4.26, 1.39) has given six total runs in 21 innings and surrendered three walks over that period.
Collectively, the Rockies pitchers have not surrendered more than four runs in a single game during this scalding streak and the batters have started ripping the cover off the ball scoring 6.6 runs per game. Colorado has picked up a stunning +13.8 units during this stretch, giving streak-riders plenty to smile about.
Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh are next to visit this team on a Rocky Mountain high, the Rocks are worth watching for what direction they will go once they finally suffer a loss.
Earlier, mentioned the maturation of Matt Cain and another pitcher that has found a groove (a deep one at that) is Detroit’s Justin Verlander. Last year’s disastrous season (11-17, 4.84) had some wondering what direction the talented hard-throwing right-hander was headed. His first four starts brought back those same questions, yielding 21 earned runs in 22 innings. However, the words of new pitching coach Rick Knapp started to sink in and on April 27 at home against the Yankees, Verlander pitched seven shutout innings, with nine K’s and no walks. Knapp slowed down Verlander’s delivery and suddenly pitches that were up in the zone, were back down, with far greater control. The confidence returned and the speed variation on the breaking pitches was being spotted again.
The 26-year has won his last seven decisions and the Tigers are 8-2 when #35 takes the ball since his fourth start of the year. Verlander has been so dominant in last nine starts; he has 1.10 ERA and leads the American League in hitters swing and missing with 182. (Thanks, Inside Edge) Detroit is 7-1 (+5.4 units) when Verlander starts and he is the only starting pitcher to break triple digits on the radar gun twice in 2009.
MLB: Dodgers Underdog in the Series and Tonight
2008-10-15
Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Chad Billingsley has a gargantuan responsibility tonight, not only must he beat Philadelphia to keep his team from being eliminated for the National League pennant, he needs to go deep into the game to do so, since the Dodgers bullpen proved to be easier to score on than an experienced Madden 08 game player with full year behind him. If that wasn’t enough, the respect of his teammates is also at stake having in their mind not backed up Manny Ramirez when he was tossed at in Game 2.
Billingsley (17-11, 3.38 ERA) looks to atone for his awful Game 2 performance. He allowed a season-high eight runs, eight hits and three walks in 2 1/3 innings. The Los Angeles bullpen is also seeking atonement, giving up five runs Monday while allowing six hits and three walks in four innings. Previous to this debacle, they had thrown 11 1/3 scoreless innings in this series. All these negatives occurring are not a complete surprise with L.A. 16-23 vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs a game and 13-20 teams averaging 1.25 or more home runs a game this season.
Philadelphia is nicely situated to close out the series, having their ace Cole Hamels (16-10, 2.97) as the starting pitcher. Hamels has won five of his last seven starts (both playoff appearances) and has allowed more than two runs just once in this streak. The lefty enters Wednesday knowing a similar performance could be enough to send Philadelphia to its first World Series since 1993. “This one is definitely important just for the fact that we almost are there,” Hamels said. “We’re almost to the World Series. We’re almost at the chance of becoming world champions.”
Sportsbook.com has the Phillies as -115 road favorites with a total of Un7.5. There are many reasons to believe they can close this series out. Start with momentum they have created being 14-4 after win. They have won eight of last 11 against right-hand starters and are 12-3 after a day off.
The total may look and feel like it should be Under, but not necessarily. In 11 of the last dozen games played at Dodger Stadium between these two teams the Over has been the right choice. Los Angeles is 9-3-1 Over when facing a team with a winning record and the Phillies are 7-2 Over after allowing five or more runs. For good measure, Philadelphia is 10-2 against the money line after three or more consecutive Overs this season.
It’s all on the line for the Dodgers who are really up against it, as the team with a 3-1 lead in the NLCS has won nine of last 11 series.
Tonight’s opening pitch is set for 8:22 Eastern in Fox.
StatFox Power Line – Philadelphia -117
MLB: Baseball Buy or Sell Teams at Trade Deadline
2008-07-30
With the trade deadline fast approaching on Thursday night, some Major League Baseball teams are in a quandary to sell off assets in order to build for the future or to buy in hopes of hanging around and maybe get hot to sneak off with a division title. Whichever the case, the buyers and sellers could be much different teams on Friday, both roster-wise, and psychologically. Be sure to take note before placing your wagers in the near future.
In the last few years, Houston and Colorado are two teams that literally came out of nowhere and ended up playing in World Series. Cleveland has already hung the white flag outside the tepee; here is a look at what other teams might be thinking.
Many baseball beat writers and those broadcasting games look at the standings and see Atlanta eight games back in the NL East and wonder why they are ridding themselves of talented players. This Braves team no longer has Ted Turner as Chief Wahoo and TBS network behind them. These Braves are owned by Liberty Media, who is more concerned about profit/loss spreadsheets than wins and losses. About the only thing this Atlanta team has with the past is manager Bobby Cox. With no Chipper Jones or Bob McCann in the lineup and Tim Hudson likely gone for the season, maybe Atlanta should trade for Greg Maddux and have him sit in the dugout with John Smoltz and Tom Glavine, just like a Rolling Stones reunion tour.
Atlanta – SELL
In case you haven’t noticed, the Oakland A’s have rotating banner for center field camera to pick up when showing pitcher throwing to batter – Will trade players for food. Oakland has done great work in developing pitching talent, allowing them to trade higher priced pitchers for prospects. The new batch of pitchers look pretty good, however are making youthful mistakes, as the A’s are 8-15 in July. Even with descent starters, where are the quality everyday ball players? Oakland is taking the term “small ball” to new lows. The A’s have the lowest batting average in the AL and are next to last in runs scored. Remember a prerequisite of “small ball” was hitters making contact; Oakland hitters have struck out the most in the junior circuit, averaging almost eight whiffs a game. With the new stadium seating around 32,000, where will the revenue streams come from to put better product on the field unless they charge $200 per seat a game?
Oakland– SELL
Texas has been among the four best teams in the American League the last three months and has pulled into second place in the AL West. The Rangers are not about to catch the Angels and are still in wild card contention being five games back. The Rangers are like your local softball team in first place, they just bludgeon the baseball. They lead the league in hitting and runs scored by a large margin. The problem for Texas is pitching, since they have been looking to put together even a fairly average staff, since a lame duck president used to be the majority owner. Leading winner Vincente Padilla (12-5) is available, but only for a young pitcher who can possibly start this year and must be in rotation in 2009. A pretty good short home favorite or road underdog when they are in hitting groove.
Texas – Buy
You keep waiting for Toronto to click, unfortunately every streak of three games of 10 hits or more, is immediately followed by five outings of three or fewer runs. Pitcher A.J. Burnett looks like a waiver deal in the latter part of August, as these Blue Jays never take flight unless they score four or more runs.
Toronto-Sell
The Colorado Rockies titillated fans winning 9 of 10 games, before losing series at Pittsburgh. In most normal years, a team would have given up long ago with the kind of record the Rockies have, at least to their advantage the NL West is far less dangerous than seven days of Shark Week on the Discovery Channel. It might be time for a little honesty for Colorado, unless they can muster another miracle run which would lead to new phrase called “Rockies Rush” when a team wins 15-20 games in a row late in the season to steal a division title. If front-running Arizona plays .500 the rest of the season to finish 82-80, this would entail Clint Hurdle’s club to close 35-19 to steal another division crown. After last year, possible, yes; likely, no.
Colorado - Sell
MLB: Bet these pitchers OVER
2008-06-23
For most casual baseball fans, the game is too slow, with not enough action and more runs needed to be scored. Don’t tell that to this group of pitchers, whose OVER numbers are more like a slow pitch softball player’s.
While major league baseball has added the thrilling aspect of players and fans to be impaled by exploding maple bats, most prefer to see runs being scored either going to the ballpark or on television. Many lukewarm bettors of baseball tend to bet Over the total, since that is their preferred interest in the sport as a whole. Since pitching is such an important aspect of baseball, here is a current roster of the best pitchers to wager on for games exceeding the total.
What fits our criterion is a starting hurler still in the rotation, despite surrendering a ton of runs and his team playing Over continually when he takes the horsehide. A perfect example is Tom Gorzelanny (5-6, 6.59 ERA) of Pittsburgh. The 25-year left-hander made serious progress in 2007, with 14-10 record and respectable 3.88 ERA. With above average fastball and slider, this was supposed to be his breakout season. Instead, he has been less effective than SPF30 in Death Valley, CA. His 6.59 earned run average is easily determined by allowing more walks than strikeouts (50-39) on the season, while already seeing 12 balls going over the fence. On the year, Gorzelanny is 11-3 OVER with the Bucs, including perfection on the road with 7-0 OVER mark. Of course when you have 8.63 road ERA, Over's come much easier.
It's hard to believe Livan Hernandez (8-4, 5.23) is only 33 years old, since it seems he's been around longer than Jamie Moyer. Packing a robust 245 pounds on a 6'2 frame, Hernandez no longer has overpowering stuff and pitches out of the stretch more than most relievers. He's allowed 150 base hits in just over 103 innings of work, as opposing teams are hitting almost .350 against him. It doesn't matter right or left-handed batters either, as the former hits .345 and the latter .351 versus Hernandez. Miraculously, Minnesota has won 12 of his 17 starts, thanks in part to scoring five or more runs in a dozen of his trips up the hill. Livan and the Twins are 12-5 OVER, as they have favorites just once when manager Ron Gardenhire handed him the ball, yet have won 11 of 16 times. Presently, playing a Twins and Over parlay with Hernandez pitching has solid winning potential.
Another hurler who has produced great results for those preferring to wager Over the number is Texas' Vincente Padilla (10-3, 3.74). The Nicaragua native has had a career easier to read than Cat in the Hat. If Padilla pitches 200 or more innings in a season, injures will follow. After chucking 200 in 2006, he managed just 120 innings last season with sore arm.
Rejuvenated, he's exceptional in notorious hitters' park in Arlington. Texas is 11-5 OVER when Padilla is starting pitcher and has won 13 of his 16 trips. In fact, the Rangers have won 10 of his 11 last starts, but scoring almost 7.5 runs per game will help the cause. Texas is 7-3 OVER as underdog, winning eight times with 30-year old on the mound.
Neither Philadelphia's Kyle Kendrick (6-3, 5.06) nor the White Sox Javier Vazquez (7-6, 4.50) is at the top of respective team rotation, yet both are good Over bets with 10-5 mark. Kendrick is still a young pitcher at 23, however needs to start missing more bats if he desires lengthy professional career. This season he's given up 93 hits in just over 78 innings and averages only a touch over two strikeouts per start. He's backed up with potent Phillies offense and is 7-3 OVER when favored.
After beginning the season well, the Sox Vazquez has struggled mightily in June. He is 2-2, yet has surrendered 19 runs in four starts covering 23.1 innings. Included have been 29 hits, 12 walks and six long balls. Vazquez is 5-1, 4.78 ERA at U.S. Cellular Field and the Pale Hose are 6-0 OVER in those encounters. Like all the pitchers mentioned, he receives tremendous run support, with the Sox scoring 9.1 RPG when Vazquez is the man on the mound on the south side of Chicago.