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MLB: Latos, Padres test 22-3 trend in key series finale
2010-07-29
The Dodgers have been in a prolonged offensive dryspell, having failed to top the five-run mark in any game since the All-star break, scoring just 2.2 runs per game during that stretch. Making matters worse for their key series finale in San Diego on Thursday is that they’ll be squaring off against one of the league’s hottest pitchers in Mat Latos. The Padres are -140 favorites according to Sportsbook.com, and a key 22-3 StatFox Power Trend backs them based on that line.
Runs have certainly been hard to come by for the Dodgers of late. It would be quite surprising if that trend didn't continue in the series finale between them and the Padres on Thursday against Mat Latos, who is 4-0 with a major league-best 0.80 ERA since June 22. He hasn't lost in seven starts since June 4, and San Diego has won them all as the big right-hander has struck out 50 in 46 1-3 innings.
Overall, Los Angeles is trying to stop the Padres from winning an eighth consecutive game started by Latos.
Latos will be opposed by Vicente Padilla (4-3, 3.41 ERA), who has also been impressive of late, going 3-1 with a 1.04 ERA in his last five starts.
Los Angeles made a move just before Wednesday's game that could ignite an offense that has scored 12 runs in seven games. The Dodgers acquired outfielder Scott Podsednik from Kansas City for a pair of minor leaguers. Podsednik, among the major league leaders with 30 steals, is batting .379 during a 15-game hitting streak and gives the Dodgers another solid hitter with Manny Ramirez still on the disabled list.
With the Padres playing as -140 favorites, its noteworthy to cite a particular StatFox Power Trend that will apply this evening:
• SAN DIEGO is 22-3 (+17.9 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 this season. The average score was SAN DIEGO 5.1, OPPONENT 2.2 - (Rating = 4*)
San Diego has been nearly automatic in this favorite role this season, and in my opinion, it has more to do with the Padres’ bullpen than anything else. In fact, San Diego’s relief staff has been the best in the business all season long and currently boasts impressive numbers of 2.79 on ERA and 1.041 on WHIP. Typically, oddsmakers don’t account too much for bullpens when building their daily lines, but with as good as San Diego’s staff has been in the late innings, the Padres have been able to either keep or build leads after the starting pitchers have departed.
Over the last seven games, only 13 hitters have reached base on the San Diego bullpen in 23-1/3 innings, good for a WHIP of just 0.557.
If you’re not sold yet on the Padres’ chances to finish off this series in impressive fashion, consider this power StatFox Super Situation as the potential clincher:
• Play On - Home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (SAN DIEGO) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season (NL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.050 or better on the season-NL. (60-16 since 1997.) (78.9%, +37.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The Padres are favored with their best pitcher on the mound against a Dodgers’ team that is starving for runs. Seems pretty easy doesn’t it? We’ll find out this evening when the teams throw out the first pitch at about 6:35 PM ET.
MLB: Hot betting system backs hot-hitting Sox
2010-07-29
The White Sox are white hot when playing in Chicago, no doubt about it. They have been almost unbeatable at home over the last couple of months, winning 16 of their last 17 games at US Cellular Field. On Wednesday, they’ll look to continue that surge when they play the third of a 4-game series versus the Mariners. Chicago is a -155 favorite according to Sportsbook.com at last check, and based upon a powerful StatFox betting system, should be listed at a much higher price. Let’s take a look at the game and the system.
No team has been better the last seven weeks than the White Sox (55-44), who are a major league-best 31-11 since June 9. They have gone from 9 1/2 games out of first place in the AL Central to a one-game lead on Minnesota.
Almost all of those 11 losses have come on the road, as Chicago has won nine straight and 16 of its last 17 at home.
Their dominance over the Seattle Mariners at U.S. Cellular Field extends back much further than that. In fact, with Tuesday’s 11-0 victory, Chicago improved to 25-7 at U.S. Cellular Field against Seattle (39-62) since 2004.
The last-place Mariners have lost 18 of their last 24 games.
Red hot Mark Buehrle (9-8, 3.96 ERA) will try to pitch the White Sox to their first 10-game home win streak since April 15-May 4, 2006. The Chicago ace started slowly this season, losing five straight decisions at one point, but has rebounded to go 6-2 with a 2.20 ERA in his last eight starts.
Buehrle is 6-0 with a 3.34 ERA in eight home starts versus Seattle.
Jason Vargas (6-5, 2.94) looks to continue his consistent pitching for the Mariners. He ranks among the top 10 in the AL in ERA and has produced quality starts in eight of his last 10 outings.
Tonight’s top betting angle comes straight from the FoxSheets Power Searches on a query titled “Current Season Situations With the Highest Winning Percentages”. It reads as follows:
Play On - Home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (CHI WHITE SOX) - hot hitting team - batting .290 or better over their last 20 games against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 3 starts. (64-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (78%, +40.2 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -131.9
The average score in these games was: Team 5.7, Opponent 3.3 (Average run differential = +2.4)
The situation's record this season is: (8-0, +8 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (31-9, +18.9 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (199-108, +43.3 units).
As you can see, this system is almost as hot in 2010 as the White Sox are at home. Chicago will put its own 9-game home winning streak on the line and look to give our feature system a 9-0 start when it goes head-to-head with Seattle starting at 8:10 PM ET.
MLB: Josh Johnson: Worth your betting dollar
2010-07-27
One pitcher has dominated the National League like no other over the course of the last three months and his name is not Tim Lincecum, Roy Halladay, or Ubaldo Jimenez. Rather, it is Josh Johnson, who has rather quietly emerged from the shadow of those other aces to become one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball. He is on a roll like no other of late, and oddsmakers are having trouble gauging just how good he has been when setting their prices. For instance, for Tuesday’s game against Matt Cain and the Giants, bettors at Sportsbook.com can back Johnson’s Marlins at around even money.
The Marlins have climbed back over .500 by going 13-6 since Independence Day. Some of the credit during that surge has to go to Johnson, who is 3-0 in his starts during the surge. However, his complete domination traces back to long beyond that.
Johnson (10-3, 1.61 ERA) has not allowed more than two runs in his last 13 starts, going 7-2 with a 0.79 ERA. The last pitcher to put together such a streak for 14 outings in a row was Houston's Mike Scott in 1986.
In addition, Johnson has allowed one run over his last 28 innings on the road.
Perhaps the biggest signs of how much command a pitcher has had can be shown in his strikeouts and WHIP numbers. When looking at Johnson’s numbers during that stretch, he has struck out 94 hitters in 91-1/3 innings with a WHIP of 0.876. He has also enjoyed 18 straight “quality starts”.
Although Johnson has never beaten the San Francisco Giants, he's never faced them when he's been pitching this well. As the league’s ERA leader, he looks to earn his first victory over the Giants when the Marlins continue a four-game series Tuesday night at AT&T Park.
The right-hander is 0-3 with a 3.00 ERA in four career starts against the Giants (56-44), although the Marlins (50-49) supported him with a total of five runs in those outings.
As an illustration of just how much trouble the oddsmakers are having with Johnson, most pitchers on a run like his would command prices in the -200 or higher range. For tonight, he is listed at just -120, thanks in part to San Francisco’s recent success as well as Matt Cain’s prowess.
The Giants had a four-game win streak snapped with a 4-3 loss Monday. San Francisco fell 3 1/2 games behind first-place San Diego in the NL West. Overall, they have gone 15-4 since July 5th, slightly better than Florida.
Johnson will get his first look at promising Giants rookie Buster Posey, who is batting .461 during a 19-game hitting streak. Posey - whose 39 hits this month lead the majors - is three games shy of matching Hall of Famer Willie McCovey's San Francisco rookie record set in 1959.
Cain has generally been in a good rhythm against Florida, going 3-0 with a 2.83 ERA in six starts. He has won his last two starts after the Giants had dropped his prior five appearances.
Ironically, it is Johnson’s dominance that leads to a powerful StatFox Super Situation indicating that he may be ready to fall finally on Tuesday:
• Play Against - Road favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (FLORIDA) - with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 15 games, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 5 starts. (36-17 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.9%, +25.6 units. Rating = 3*)
For as much as the Marlins have been winning, they have been doing it more with pitching.
However, that said, Johnson still might prove to be the difference, based primarily on the price and the value which comes with a pitcher of his command:
• JOHNSON is 17-7 (+10.6 Units) against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) The average score was JOHNSON 5.3, OPPONENT 3.2 - (Rating = 1*)
First pitch for this highly intriguing contest is set for 10:15 PM ET, or 7:15 PM on the left coast. The total is posted at a paltry 6.5. Even still, the StatFox Game Estimator shows a 3.3-2.9 projected win by the Giants, low enough to still take the game UNDER.
Top MLB Weekend Power Trends 7/23-7/25
2010-07-24
As the trade deadline nears in Major League Baseball, teams have just about a week left to decide whether they want to be buyers, sellers, or stand pat. In truth, most teams probably already know the answer to this dilemma, but still, you never know what a hot or cold streak might do over the next seven days. With that said, this weekend’s action might have a hand in the decision, although there are only two series’ in each league that match winning teams against one another. Let’s look at those matchups as well as the other key action and unveil our list of Top StatFox Power Trends to consider in your wagering.
In the National League this weekend, two fading clubs will try to revive their pennant chase hopes when they go head-to-head in Los Angeles. The Mets have lost 10 of their last 12 games, including a 2-0 shutout at the hands of the Dodgers on Thursday. They have fallen to 7.5-games back of the Braves in the process. L.A. hasn’t been a whole lot better of late, although they have won back-to-back games, both shutouts, since dropping six straight. The Mets are now 3-1 vs. Los Angeles this season, but have lost six of seven in L.A. dating back to 2008. Elsewhere, in Philadelphia, the Phillies are playing host to the Rockies. Like the Mets, Colorado has lost six of its L7 games in its current locale. They have lost six of eight games overall to fall to 4.5 games back of San Diego out West. Philadelphia seems to be just going through the motions right now, and is struggling offensively, having scored just 29 runs in its L10 games.
No one in the Senior Circuit goes into the weekend with longer than a 2-game winning streak, although San Francisco (at Arizona), St. Louis (at Chicago), and Florida (home vs. Atlanta) are the hottest teams over the last couple of weeks.
In the American League, the big series is in Texas, where the Rangers already started building the cushion over the Angels in the West Division with a 3-2 win on Thursday night behind Cliff Lee. Anaheim is in desperation mode for the rest of the series, since it has fallen to six games back, and any deeper of a hole will be very difficult to make up against a Texas team that can finally boast of having one of the league’s best pitching staffs. The Rangers are 3-0 vs. the Angels in Arlington this season and boast a 15-7 record in divisional play.
The other series pitting winning teams against one another is in Oakland, where the A’s play host to the Central leading White Sox. The A’s are surging right now, having won seven of eight games. Of course, that pales in comparison to the recent play of the pale hose, who are 28-9 since June 9th. It will be the first time these teams have played in 2010.
If you’re looking to ride the league’s best teams this weekend, the Rays will be in Cleveland looking to extend a run of 19-6 on the road this season against teams with a losing record, while the Yankees will be continuing a 4-game set at home versus the Royals.
Now, here’s our look at some of this weekend’s Top StatFox Power Trends, one for each of the 15 series’.
ST LOUIS at CHICAGO CUBS
CHICAGO CUBS are 18-36 (-17.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CHICAGO CUBS 3.5, OPPONENT 5.1 - (Rating = 1*)
COLORADO at PHILADELPHIA
COLORADO is 35-79 (-29.9 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) in the second half of the season since 1997. The average score was COLORADO 3.9, OPPONENT 5.4 - (Rating = 1*)
SAN DIEGO at PITTSBURGH
PITTSBURGH is 7-25 (-17.0 Units) against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game this season. The average score was PITTSBURGH 3.3, OPPONENT 5.3 - (Rating = 2*)
ATLANTA at FLORIDA
FLORIDA is 20-11 (+14.5 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the last 2 seasons. The average score was FLORIDA 4.9, OPPONENT 4.1 - (Rating = 1*)
CINCINNATI at HOUSTON
CINCINNATI is 13-3 (+9.2 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 3.8 or less runs/game on the season this season. The average score was CINCINNATI 5.6, OPPONENT 2.3 - (Rating = 1*)
WASHINGTON at MILWAUKEE
MILWAUKEE is 17-24 (-11.8 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season. The average score was MILWAUKEE 4.7, OPPONENT 5.9 - (Rating = 1*)
SAN FRANCISCO at ARIZONA
SAN FRANCISCO is 20-6 (+12.8 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams allowing 4.8 or more runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 5.3, OPPONENT 3.3 - (Rating = 1*)
NY METS at LA DODGERS
LA DODGERS are 36-12 (+13.9 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse over the last 2 seasons. The average score was LA DODGERS 4.6, OPPONENT 2.9 - (Rating = 1*)
TORONTO at DETROIT
TORONTO is 61-40 (+21.4 Units) against the money line against AL Central opponents over the last 3 seasons. The average score was TORONTO 4.9, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 1*)
MINNESOTA at BALTIMORE
BALTIMORE is 13-31 (-16.1 Units) against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game this season. The average score was BALTIMORE 3.5, OPPONENT 5.3 - (Rating = 1*)
TAMPA BAY at CLEVELAND
TAMPA BAY is 19-6 (+11.3 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record this season. The average score was TAMPA BAY 6.3, OPPONENT 3.3 - (Rating = 1*)
KANSAS CITY at NY YANKEES
KANSAS CITY is 17-7 OVER (+9.7 Units) vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season this season. The average score was KANSAS CITY 5.0, OPPONENT 5.5 - (Rating = 1*)
LA ANGELS at TEXAS
LA ANGELS are 38-21 (+18.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 2 seasons. The average score was LA ANGELS 5.2, OPPONENT 4.2 - (Rating = 2*)
CHI WHITE SOX at OAKLAND
OAKLAND is 21-11 UNDER (+8.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The average score was OAKLAND 3.7, OPPONENT 3.4 - (Rating = 1*)
BOSTON at SEATTLE
BOSTON is 30-6 (+20.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) in the second half of the last 3 seasons. The average score was BOSTON 7.1, OPPONENT 3.9 - (Rating = 1*)
MLB: Betting info favors Rangers in key series opener
2010-07-22
The Rangers and Angels are separated by five games in the A.L. West Division standings heading into their 4-game series opener on Thursday night in Texas. The set is clearly more critical for the trailing Angels, as anything but a series win will leave them continuing to play catch-up for next near future. They will send ace Jered Weaver to the hill on Thursday night, but he is a hefty +155 underdog to Cliff Lee, according to Sportsbook.com. Let’s take a look at this key showdown.
Weaver probably isn’t as worried about squaring off with a fellow ace as he is having to pitch in Texas. He has had trouble regardless of who is pitching for the Rangers. His team will look to avoid losing their seventh straight game started by Weaver at Texas on Thursday night. The right-hander has a 6.17 ERA during that stretch, surrendering seven runs in two of his last three outings.
This four-game series gives three-time reigning division champion Los Angeles (51-46) a chance to cut into Texas' five-game lead.
"It's huge," Weaver (9-5, 3.16 ERA) told the Angels' official website. "We've been sitting four, five games back for a while now. ... When you're playing those guys, you pick up a game or lose one. Simple as that."
Lee, meanwhile, has won four straight starts versus the Angels, posting a 1.91 ERA, and is 6-3 with a 3.18 ERA in nine outings against them all-time.
Lee is facing an Angels team that is hitting .329 while averaging 5.8 runs over its last six games. Los Angeles had 15 hits against New York on Wednesday, but still lost 10-6.
Today’s top StatFox betting system favors the host Rangers at -165:
• Play On - All favorites with a money line of -150 or more (TEXAS) - allowing 4.7 or less runs/game on the season (AL) against opponent starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing. (102-29 over the last 5 seasons.) (77.9%, +52.3 units. Rating = 3*)
There is also good reason to believe that the offenses will take center stage, rather than the pitchers:
• Play Over - All teams where the total is 8 to 8.5 (TEXAS) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.100 or better on the season-AL, with a rested bullpen - threw <= 2 innings in each of the last 2 games. (43-12 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.2%, +30.4 units. Rating = 4*)
Texas has been solid the last couple of years against its toughest opposing pitchers, going 15-4 (+13.6 Units) against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.100 or better over the last 2 seasons. The average score was TEXAS 5.3, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 2*). On top of that, Cliff Lee is on a 15-2 (+11.7 units) surge as a home favorite of -150 to -175. Of course, that has come with four different teams.
Perhaps the only blemish on the Rangers scorecard heading into tonight’s key game is that they are just 3-7 at home this month.
The Angels took two of three from Texas the last time these teams met at the end of June.
The StatFox Power Line indicates the Rangers hold value all the way up to -176. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05 PM ET from Arlington.
MLB: Competitive Wednesday Baseball Board
2010-07-21
Wednesday’s full slate of 15 games in Major League Baseball stacks up as a competitive one, with only three games showing lines of minus-160 or higher according to Sportsbook.com, and only three games with starting pitcher WHIP differences of .200 or more. That said, it might take a bit more work to successfully handicap today’s action, looking specifically for more subtle edges. Let’s break down the schedule and see if we can’t uncover some value.
(901) HOUSTON (MYERS) at (902) CHICAGO CUBS (LILLY) 2:20 PM
Line: Chicago -155, Total: 8
Starting pitcher WHIP edge: Chicago
Bullpen WHIP edge: Chicago
Offense Edge: Chicago (LARGE)
Recent Play Edge: Chicago
Overall Analysis: The Cubs bats have come alive lately, but as StatFox readers know from yesterday’s feature piece, they have struggled horribly against bad teams this season. Both pitchers have fared well in their careers versus today’s opponent, but Myers is the hotter pitcher of late. Tough laying this price today.
(903) MILWAUKEE (WOLF) at (904) PITTSBURGH (DUKE) 7:05 PM
Line: Milwaukee -125, Total: 8.5
SP WHIP Edge: Milwaukee
BP WHIP Edge: Pittsburgh
Offense Edge: Milwaukee (LARGE)
Recent Play Edge: Milwaukee
Overall Analysis: Milwaukee’s overall dominance of the Pirates in recent years (32-10 L3 years) has to be given consideration here, and the Brewers are producing a lot of runs via the long ball of late. The Pirates’ Duke has been rocked by Milwaukee in recent starts while Wolf has enjoyed a ton of success against Pittsburgh.
(905) SAN DIEGO (GARLAND) at (906) ATLANTA (HANSON) 7:10 PM
Line: Atlanta -155, Total: 8
SP WHIP Edge: San Diego
BP WHIP Edge: San Diego
Offense Edge: Atlanta
Recent Play Edge: None
Overall Analysis: One of the best games on today’s board, Atlanta and Hanson are being shown quite a bit of respect by oddsmakers. The Braves are 3-1 this season against San Diego. GARLAND is 0-2 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 14.03 and a WHIP of 2.998 in his career. While the line and home field seem to give the overall edge to Atlanta, you can discount the Padres, particularly as the dogs.
(907) COLORADO (HAMMEL) at (908) FLORIDA (NOLASCO) 7:10 PM
Line: Florida -115, Total: 8.5
SP WHIP Edge: Florida
BP WHIP Edge: Colorado (LARGE)
Offense Edge: Colorado
Recent Play Edge: None
Overall Analysis: The Rockies pounded the Marlins 10-0 on Tuesday to even up the current 4-game set at two games apiece. They are just 1-7 this season coming off a win by 6 runs or more. Though the Marlins are 4-3 in their L7 games, they have only batted .194 while producing 2.6 RPG during that span. Nolasco holds a significant edge historically versus opponent, with a 4-0 career won-lost mark and a WHIP of 0.967 against Colorado.
(909) WASHINGTON (STRASBURG) at (910) CINCINNATI (ARROYO) 7:10 PM
Line: Washington -115, Total: 7
SP WHIP Edge: Washington
BP WHIP Edge: Washington
Offense Edge: Cincinnati (LARGE)
Recent Play Edge: Cincinnati
Overall Analysis: To show how much oddsmakers are favoring Strasburg these days, the Nationals are 15-33 on the road this season but still favored over the Reds, who are 31-20 at home. WASHINGTON is 1-10 (-10.2 Units) against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 over the last 3 seasons. Cincy seems to be finding a groove again since returning from their recent lengthy road trip. They are 4-1 on the current homestand. Worthy underdog look.
(911) PHILADELPHIA (BLANTON) at (912) ST LOUIS (GARCIA) 8:15 PM
Line: St. Louis -145, Total: 8.5
SP WHIP Edge: St. Louis
BP WHIP Edge: St. Louis (LARGE)
Offense Edge: St. Louis
Recent Play Edge: St. Louis (LARGE)
Overall Analysis: As you can see from the edges, there isn’t a whole lot going for the Phillies in this third of a four game series versus the red-hot Cardinals. St. Louis has won seven straight games and is now 33-15 at home in 2010. Garcia has been stellar for the Cards as well, while Blanton owns an ugly 7.06 ERA on the road. With trade rumors also dogging the franchise, bet Philly at your own peril.
(913) NY METS (NIESE) at (914) ARIZONA (HAREN) 9:40 PM
Line: Arizona -120, Total: 8.5
SP WHIP Edge: Arizona
BP WHIP Edge: NY Mets (LARGE)
Offense Edge: None
Recent Play Edge: None
Overall Analysis: Arizona has taken the first two games of the 3-game series versus New York, who continues to struggle on the road. The Mets are just 19-29 this season away from Citi Field, allowing opponents to bat .290. Niese has been a good stopper for them though and has put together four solid starts in a row. After losing last night as -125 favorites, an interesting trend finds MANUEL is 23-9 (+14.7 Units) against the money line revenging a loss vs opponent as a road favorite as the manager of NY METS. Don’t be surprised to see New York salvage this one.
(915) SAN FRANCISCO (ZITO) at (916) LA DODGERS (BILLINGSLEY) 10:10 PM
Line: LA Dodgers -140, Total: 7.5
SP WHIP Edge: San Francisco
BP WHIP Edge: Los Angeles
Offense Edge: None
Recent Play Edge: San Francisco (HUGE)
Overall Analysis: San Francisco is among the hottest teams in baseball right now, having won 11 of 13 games. The Dodgers have lost six straight. Despite this and the fact that Zito is enjoying the better season over Billingsley, who has been rocked in his last two starts, the Dodgers are still somewhat heavy favorites. Strangely, the money seems to be moving towards Los Angeles. Value here is clearly on the confident Giants.
(917) TAMPA BAY (SHIELDS) at (918) BALTIMORE (BERGESEN) 12:35 PM
Line: Tampa Bay -200, Total: 9.5
SP WHIP Edge: Tampa Bay (LARGE)
BP WHIP Edge: Tampa Bay (LARGE)
Offense Edge: Tampa Bay
Recent Play Edge: None
Overall Analysis: One trend is very interesting to me in this game, BALTIMORE is 6-1 (+11.9 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season this season. After last night’s huge come from behind, extra-inning win, it figures to be tough to lay the -220 against the O’s tonight, especially with a mediocre-of-late Shields getting the ball. Better plays on the board.
(919) LA ANGELS (PINEIRO) at (920) NY YANKEES (VAZQUEZ) 1:05 PM
Line: NY Yankees -175, Total: 9.0
SP WHIP Edge: NY Yankees
BP WHIP Edge: NY Yankees (LARGE)
Offense Edge: NY Yankees (LARGE)
Recent Play Edge: None
Overall Analysis: The Angels pounded Phil Hughes last night en route to a 10-2 upset as +220 dogs. Today’s revenge spot shows a strong FoxSheets system: Play Against - Home teams (NY YANKEES) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 10 or more runs, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 3.00 over his last 10 games. (33-16 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.3%, +31 units. Rating = 4*). Early money seems to be landing with New York, but everything else I look at indicates a slight over-pricing here.
(921) CLEVELAND (WESTBROOK) at (922) MINNESOTA (LIRIANO) 1:10 PM
Line: Minnesota -220, Total: 8
SP WHIP Edge: Minnesota
BP WHIP Edge: Minnesota (LARGE)
Offense Edge: Minnesota (LARGE)
Recent Play Edge: Cleveland
Overall Analysis: Minnesota hasn’t been this large of a favorite since May 8th. The difference here and then is that the Twins were playing far better baseball at that point in the season. They are just 9-16 in their L25 games now including back-to-back losses in this series in which they have yielded 30 hits to the Indians. Cleveland has won six games in a row and is playing as good as it has all year. Liriano and the hosts simply aren’t worthy of this price today.
(923) TORONTO (RZEPCZYNSKI) at (924) KANSAS CITY (GREINKE) 2:10 PM
Line: Kansas City -155, Total: 8.5
SP WHIP Edge: Kansas City (LARGE)
BP WHIP Edge: Toronto
Offense Edge: None
Recent Play Edge: Toronto (LARGE)
Overall Analysis: Greinke opened as an exorbitant -170 favorite only to be bet down to -155 since. While he has pitched well of late, he certainly hasn’t commanded this type of price. Considering that the Jays have been getting it going of late with a 7-3 mark in their L10 games, including a 13-1 win last night, I’d be leery of laying the chalk here with the Royals. Good underdog spot.
(925) BOSTON (BUCHHOLZ) at (926) OAKLAND (GONZALEZ) 3:35 PM
Line: Boston -115, Total: 8
SP WHIP Edge: Boston
BP WHIP Edge: Boston
Offense Edge: None at this point
Recent Play Edge: Oakland
Overall Analysis: Boston and Oakland have split the first two games of their 3-game set, with each contest being decided by a run. Tonight’s pitching matchup is a good one, with Buchholz getting the slight edge if only for his recent prowess. At -120, the StatFox Game Estimator and Power Ratings indicate that this game is underpriced for Boston by at least 25 cents, but savvy bettors have to give consideration to the bats missing from the Red Sox lineup.
(927) TEXAS (LEWIS) at (928) DETROIT (SCHERZER) 7:05 PM
Line: Detroit -105, Total: 9
SP WHIP Edge: Texas (LARGE)
BP WHIP Edge: Texas
Offense Edge: Texas
Recent Play Edge: Texas
Overall Analysis: What in the world is going on with the Tigers? Seven straight losses coming off a lengthy stretch in which they had gone 18-8. Pitching has been a huge problem in this current skid, as they have allowed opponents to score 6.1 RPG while hitting .294. Making matters worse today is that Detroit will be facing the Rangers’ Colby Lewis, who boasts an impressive 1.115 WHIP on the season and has had incredible command, striking out 112 hitters in just shy of 116 innings. Despite the fact that the two wins this week broke a 9-game losing streak in Detroit, you have to like the Rangers’ chances at a sweep.
(929) CHI WHITE SOX (FLOYD) at (930) SEATTLE (HERNANDEZ) 10:10 PM
Line: Seattle -135, Total: 6.5
SP WHIP Edge: Seattle
BP WHIP Edge: Chicago
Offense Edge: Chicago (LARGE)
Recent Play Edge: Chicago (HUGE)
Overall Analysis: Seattle is on an extended stretch of awful play, with just a 3-14 mark in its L17 games. I can NEVER advocate backing a team like that in the role of favorite, even if its ace starting pitcher is on the hill. The White Sox have surged to the top of the Central Division and wins over the last two nights have them in the position to sweep here. I’d honestly be surprised if they don’t.
MLB: Cubs just can’t beat bad teams
2010-07-20
MLB: Latos, Padres test 22-3 trend in key series finale
2010-07-29
The Dodgers have been in a prolonged offensive dryspell, having failed to top the five-run mark in any game since the All-star break, scoring just 2.2 runs per game during that stretch. Making matters worse for their key series finale in San Diego on Thursday is that they’ll be squaring off against one of the league’s hottest pitchers in Mat Latos. The Padres are -140 favorites according to Sportsbook.com, and a key 22-3 StatFox Power Trend backs them based on that line.
Runs have certainly been hard to come by for the Dodgers of late. It would be quite surprising if that trend didn't continue in the series finale between them and the Padres on Thursday against Mat Latos, who is 4-0 with a major league-best 0.80 ERA since June 22. He hasn't lost in seven starts since June 4, and San Diego has won them all as the big right-hander has struck out 50 in 46 1-3 innings.
Overall, Los Angeles is trying to stop the Padres from winning an eighth consecutive game started by Latos.
Latos will be opposed by Vicente Padilla (4-3, 3.41 ERA), who has also been impressive of late, going 3-1 with a 1.04 ERA in his last five starts.
Los Angeles made a move just before Wednesday's game that could ignite an offense that has scored 12 runs in seven games. The Dodgers acquired outfielder Scott Podsednik from Kansas City for a pair of minor leaguers. Podsednik, among the major league leaders with 30 steals, is batting .379 during a 15-game hitting streak and gives the Dodgers another solid hitter with Manny Ramirez still on the disabled list.
With the Padres playing as -140 favorites, its noteworthy to cite a particular StatFox Power Trend that will apply this evening:
• SAN DIEGO is 22-3 (+17.9 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 this season. The average score was SAN DIEGO 5.1, OPPONENT 2.2 - (Rating = 4*)
San Diego has been nearly automatic in this favorite role this season, and in my opinion, it has more to do with the Padres’ bullpen than anything else. In fact, San Diego’s relief staff has been the best in the business all season long and currently boasts impressive numbers of 2.79 on ERA and 1.041 on WHIP. Typically, oddsmakers don’t account too much for bullpens when building their daily lines, but with as good as San Diego’s staff has been in the late innings, the Padres have been able to either keep or build leads after the starting pitchers have departed.
Over the last seven games, only 13 hitters have reached base on the San Diego bullpen in 23-1/3 innings, good for a WHIP of just 0.557.
If you’re not sold yet on the Padres’ chances to finish off this series in impressive fashion, consider this power StatFox Super Situation as the potential clincher:
• Play On - Home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (SAN DIEGO) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season (NL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.050 or better on the season-NL. (60-16 since 1997.) (78.9%, +37.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The Padres are favored with their best pitcher on the mound against a Dodgers’ team that is starving for runs. Seems pretty easy doesn’t it? We’ll find out this evening when the teams throw out the first pitch at about 6:35 PM ET.
MLB: Hot betting system backs hot-hitting Sox
2010-07-29
The White Sox are white hot when playing in Chicago, no doubt about it. They have been almost unbeatable at home over the last couple of months, winning 16 of their last 17 games at US Cellular Field. On Wednesday, they’ll look to continue that surge when they play the third of a 4-game series versus the Mariners. Chicago is a -155 favorite according to Sportsbook.com at last check, and based upon a powerful StatFox betting system, should be listed at a much higher price. Let’s take a look at the game and the system.
No team has been better the last seven weeks than the White Sox (55-44), who are a major league-best 31-11 since June 9. They have gone from 9 1/2 games out of first place in the AL Central to a one-game lead on Minnesota.
Almost all of those 11 losses have come on the road, as Chicago has won nine straight and 16 of its last 17 at home.
Their dominance over the Seattle Mariners at U.S. Cellular Field extends back much further than that. In fact, with Tuesday’s 11-0 victory, Chicago improved to 25-7 at U.S. Cellular Field against Seattle (39-62) since 2004.
The last-place Mariners have lost 18 of their last 24 games.
Red hot Mark Buehrle (9-8, 3.96 ERA) will try to pitch the White Sox to their first 10-game home win streak since April 15-May 4, 2006. The Chicago ace started slowly this season, losing five straight decisions at one point, but has rebounded to go 6-2 with a 2.20 ERA in his last eight starts.
Buehrle is 6-0 with a 3.34 ERA in eight home starts versus Seattle.
Jason Vargas (6-5, 2.94) looks to continue his consistent pitching for the Mariners. He ranks among the top 10 in the AL in ERA and has produced quality starts in eight of his last 10 outings.
Tonight’s top betting angle comes straight from the FoxSheets Power Searches on a query titled “Current Season Situations With the Highest Winning Percentages”. It reads as follows:
Play On - Home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (CHI WHITE SOX) - hot hitting team - batting .290 or better over their last 20 games against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 3 starts. (64-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (78%, +40.2 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -131.9
The average score in these games was: Team 5.7, Opponent 3.3 (Average run differential = +2.4)
The situation's record this season is: (8-0, +8 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (31-9, +18.9 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (199-108, +43.3 units).
As you can see, this system is almost as hot in 2010 as the White Sox are at home. Chicago will put its own 9-game home winning streak on the line and look to give our feature system a 9-0 start when it goes head-to-head with Seattle starting at 8:10 PM ET.
MLB: Josh Johnson: Worth your betting dollar
2010-07-27
One pitcher has dominated the National League like no other over the course of the last three months and his name is not Tim Lincecum, Roy Halladay, or Ubaldo Jimenez. Rather, it is Josh Johnson, who has rather quietly emerged from the shadow of those other aces to become one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball. He is on a roll like no other of late, and oddsmakers are having trouble gauging just how good he has been when setting their prices. For instance, for Tuesday’s game against Matt Cain and the Giants, bettors at Sportsbook.com can back Johnson’s Marlins at around even money.
The Marlins have climbed back over .500 by going 13-6 since Independence Day. Some of the credit during that surge has to go to Johnson, who is 3-0 in his starts during the surge. However, his complete domination traces back to long beyond that.
Johnson (10-3, 1.61 ERA) has not allowed more than two runs in his last 13 starts, going 7-2 with a 0.79 ERA. The last pitcher to put together such a streak for 14 outings in a row was Houston's Mike Scott in 1986.
In addition, Johnson has allowed one run over his last 28 innings on the road.
Perhaps the biggest signs of how much command a pitcher has had can be shown in his strikeouts and WHIP numbers. When looking at Johnson’s numbers during that stretch, he has struck out 94 hitters in 91-1/3 innings with a WHIP of 0.876. He has also enjoyed 18 straight “quality starts”.
Although Johnson has never beaten the San Francisco Giants, he's never faced them when he's been pitching this well. As the league’s ERA leader, he looks to earn his first victory over the Giants when the Marlins continue a four-game series Tuesday night at AT&T Park.
The right-hander is 0-3 with a 3.00 ERA in four career starts against the Giants (56-44), although the Marlins (50-49) supported him with a total of five runs in those outings.
As an illustration of just how much trouble the oddsmakers are having with Johnson, most pitchers on a run like his would command prices in the -200 or higher range. For tonight, he is listed at just -120, thanks in part to San Francisco’s recent success as well as Matt Cain’s prowess.
The Giants had a four-game win streak snapped with a 4-3 loss Monday. San Francisco fell 3 1/2 games behind first-place San Diego in the NL West. Overall, they have gone 15-4 since July 5th, slightly better than Florida.
Johnson will get his first look at promising Giants rookie Buster Posey, who is batting .461 during a 19-game hitting streak. Posey - whose 39 hits this month lead the majors - is three games shy of matching Hall of Famer Willie McCovey's San Francisco rookie record set in 1959.
Cain has generally been in a good rhythm against Florida, going 3-0 with a 2.83 ERA in six starts. He has won his last two starts after the Giants had dropped his prior five appearances.
Ironically, it is Johnson’s dominance that leads to a powerful StatFox Super Situation indicating that he may be ready to fall finally on Tuesday:
• Play Against - Road favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (FLORIDA) - with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 15 games, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 5 starts. (36-17 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.9%, +25.6 units. Rating = 3*)
For as much as the Marlins have been winning, they have been doing it more with pitching.
However, that said, Johnson still might prove to be the difference, based primarily on the price and the value which comes with a pitcher of his command:
• JOHNSON is 17-7 (+10.6 Units) against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) The average score was JOHNSON 5.3, OPPONENT 3.2 - (Rating = 1*)
First pitch for this highly intriguing contest is set for 10:15 PM ET, or 7:15 PM on the left coast. The total is posted at a paltry 6.5. Even still, the StatFox Game Estimator shows a 3.3-2.9 projected win by the Giants, low enough to still take the game UNDER.
Top MLB Weekend Power Trends 7/23-7/25
2010-07-24
As the trade deadline nears in Major League Baseball, teams have just about a week left to decide whether they want to be buyers, sellers, or stand pat. In truth, most teams probably already know the answer to this dilemma, but still, you never know what a hot or cold streak might do over the next seven days. With that said, this weekend’s action might have a hand in the decision, although there are only two series’ in each league that match winning teams against one another. Let’s look at those matchups as well as the other key action and unveil our list of Top StatFox Power Trends to consider in your wagering.
In the National League this weekend, two fading clubs will try to revive their pennant chase hopes when they go head-to-head in Los Angeles. The Mets have lost 10 of their last 12 games, including a 2-0 shutout at the hands of the Dodgers on Thursday. They have fallen to 7.5-games back of the Braves in the process. L.A. hasn’t been a whole lot better of late, although they have won back-to-back games, both shutouts, since dropping six straight. The Mets are now 3-1 vs. Los Angeles this season, but have lost six of seven in L.A. dating back to 2008. Elsewhere, in Philadelphia, the Phillies are playing host to the Rockies. Like the Mets, Colorado has lost six of its L7 games in its current locale. They have lost six of eight games overall to fall to 4.5 games back of San Diego out West. Philadelphia seems to be just going through the motions right now, and is struggling offensively, having scored just 29 runs in its L10 games.
No one in the Senior Circuit goes into the weekend with longer than a 2-game winning streak, although San Francisco (at Arizona), St. Louis (at Chicago), and Florida (home vs. Atlanta) are the hottest teams over the last couple of weeks.
In the American League, the big series is in Texas, where the Rangers already started building the cushion over the Angels in the West Division with a 3-2 win on Thursday night behind Cliff Lee. Anaheim is in desperation mode for the rest of the series, since it has fallen to six games back, and any deeper of a hole will be very difficult to make up against a Texas team that can finally boast of having one of the league’s best pitching staffs. The Rangers are 3-0 vs. the Angels in Arlington this season and boast a 15-7 record in divisional play.
The other series pitting winning teams against one another is in Oakland, where the A’s play host to the Central leading White Sox. The A’s are surging right now, having won seven of eight games. Of course, that pales in comparison to the recent play of the pale hose, who are 28-9 since June 9th. It will be the first time these teams have played in 2010.
If you’re looking to ride the league’s best teams this weekend, the Rays will be in Cleveland looking to extend a run of 19-6 on the road this season against teams with a losing record, while the Yankees will be continuing a 4-game set at home versus the Royals.
Now, here’s our look at some of this weekend’s Top StatFox Power Trends, one for each of the 15 series’.
ST LOUIS at CHICAGO CUBS
COLORADO at PHILADELPHIA
SAN DIEGO at PITTSBURGH
ATLANTA at FLORIDA
CINCINNATI at HOUSTON
WASHINGTON at MILWAUKEE
SAN FRANCISCO at ARIZONA
NY METS at LA DODGERS
TORONTO at DETROIT
MINNESOTA at BALTIMORE
TAMPA BAY at CLEVELAND
KANSAS CITY at NY YANKEES
LA ANGELS at TEXAS
CHI WHITE SOX at OAKLAND
BOSTON at SEATTLE
MLB: Betting info favors Rangers in key series opener
2010-07-22
The Rangers and Angels are separated by five games in the A.L. West Division standings heading into their 4-game series opener on Thursday night in Texas. The set is clearly more critical for the trailing Angels, as anything but a series win will leave them continuing to play catch-up for next near future. They will send ace Jered Weaver to the hill on Thursday night, but he is a hefty +155 underdog to Cliff Lee, according to Sportsbook.com. Let’s take a look at this key showdown.
Weaver probably isn’t as worried about squaring off with a fellow ace as he is having to pitch in Texas. He has had trouble regardless of who is pitching for the Rangers. His team will look to avoid losing their seventh straight game started by Weaver at Texas on Thursday night. The right-hander has a 6.17 ERA during that stretch, surrendering seven runs in two of his last three outings.
This four-game series gives three-time reigning division champion Los Angeles (51-46) a chance to cut into Texas' five-game lead.
"It's huge," Weaver (9-5, 3.16 ERA) told the Angels' official website. "We've been sitting four, five games back for a while now. ... When you're playing those guys, you pick up a game or lose one. Simple as that."
Lee, meanwhile, has won four straight starts versus the Angels, posting a 1.91 ERA, and is 6-3 with a 3.18 ERA in nine outings against them all-time.
Lee is facing an Angels team that is hitting .329 while averaging 5.8 runs over its last six games. Los Angeles had 15 hits against New York on Wednesday, but still lost 10-6.
Today’s top StatFox betting system favors the host Rangers at -165:
• Play On - All favorites with a money line of -150 or more (TEXAS) - allowing 4.7 or less runs/game on the season (AL) against opponent starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing. (102-29 over the last 5 seasons.) (77.9%, +52.3 units. Rating = 3*)
There is also good reason to believe that the offenses will take center stage, rather than the pitchers:
• Play Over - All teams where the total is 8 to 8.5 (TEXAS) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.100 or better on the season-AL, with a rested bullpen - threw <= 2 innings in each of the last 2 games. (43-12 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.2%, +30.4 units. Rating = 4*)
Texas has been solid the last couple of years against its toughest opposing pitchers, going 15-4 (+13.6 Units) against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.100 or better over the last 2 seasons. The average score was TEXAS 5.3, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 2*). On top of that, Cliff Lee is on a 15-2 (+11.7 units) surge as a home favorite of -150 to -175. Of course, that has come with four different teams.
Perhaps the only blemish on the Rangers scorecard heading into tonight’s key game is that they are just 3-7 at home this month.
The Angels took two of three from Texas the last time these teams met at the end of June.
The StatFox Power Line indicates the Rangers hold value all the way up to -176. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05 PM ET from Arlington.
MLB: Competitive Wednesday Baseball Board
2010-07-21
Wednesday’s full slate of 15 games in Major League Baseball stacks up as a competitive one, with only three games showing lines of minus-160 or higher according to Sportsbook.com, and only three games with starting pitcher WHIP differences of .200 or more. That said, it might take a bit more work to successfully handicap today’s action, looking specifically for more subtle edges. Let’s break down the schedule and see if we can’t uncover some value.
(901) HOUSTON (MYERS) at (902) CHICAGO CUBS (LILLY) 2:20 PM
Line: Chicago -155, Total: 8
Starting pitcher WHIP edge: Chicago
Bullpen WHIP edge: Chicago
Offense Edge: Chicago (LARGE)
Recent Play Edge: Chicago
Overall Analysis: The Cubs bats have come alive lately, but as StatFox readers know from yesterday’s feature piece, they have struggled horribly against bad teams this season. Both pitchers have fared well in their careers versus today’s opponent, but Myers is the hotter pitcher of late. Tough laying this price today.
(903) MILWAUKEE (WOLF) at (904) PITTSBURGH (DUKE) 7:05 PM
Line: Milwaukee -125, Total: 8.5
SP WHIP Edge: Milwaukee
BP WHIP Edge: Pittsburgh
Offense Edge: Milwaukee (LARGE)
Recent Play Edge: Milwaukee
Overall Analysis: Milwaukee’s overall dominance of the Pirates in recent years (32-10 L3 years) has to be given consideration here, and the Brewers are producing a lot of runs via the long ball of late. The Pirates’ Duke has been rocked by Milwaukee in recent starts while Wolf has enjoyed a ton of success against Pittsburgh.
(905) SAN DIEGO (GARLAND) at (906) ATLANTA (HANSON) 7:10 PM
Line: Atlanta -155, Total: 8
SP WHIP Edge: San Diego
BP WHIP Edge: San Diego
Offense Edge: Atlanta
Recent Play Edge: None
Overall Analysis: One of the best games on today’s board, Atlanta and Hanson are being shown quite a bit of respect by oddsmakers. The Braves are 3-1 this season against San Diego. GARLAND is 0-2 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 14.03 and a WHIP of 2.998 in his career. While the line and home field seem to give the overall edge to Atlanta, you can discount the Padres, particularly as the dogs.
(907) COLORADO (HAMMEL) at (908) FLORIDA (NOLASCO) 7:10 PM
Line: Florida -115, Total: 8.5
SP WHIP Edge: Florida
BP WHIP Edge: Colorado (LARGE)
Offense Edge: Colorado
Recent Play Edge: None
Overall Analysis: The Rockies pounded the Marlins 10-0 on Tuesday to even up the current 4-game set at two games apiece. They are just 1-7 this season coming off a win by 6 runs or more. Though the Marlins are 4-3 in their L7 games, they have only batted .194 while producing 2.6 RPG during that span. Nolasco holds a significant edge historically versus opponent, with a 4-0 career won-lost mark and a WHIP of 0.967 against Colorado.
(909) WASHINGTON (STRASBURG) at (910) CINCINNATI (ARROYO) 7:10 PM
Line: Washington -115, Total: 7
SP WHIP Edge: Washington
BP WHIP Edge: Washington
Offense Edge: Cincinnati (LARGE)
Recent Play Edge: Cincinnati
Overall Analysis: To show how much oddsmakers are favoring Strasburg these days, the Nationals are 15-33 on the road this season but still favored over the Reds, who are 31-20 at home. WASHINGTON is 1-10 (-10.2 Units) against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 over the last 3 seasons. Cincy seems to be finding a groove again since returning from their recent lengthy road trip. They are 4-1 on the current homestand. Worthy underdog look.
(911) PHILADELPHIA (BLANTON) at (912) ST LOUIS (GARCIA) 8:15 PM
Line: St. Louis -145, Total: 8.5
SP WHIP Edge: St. Louis
BP WHIP Edge: St. Louis (LARGE)
Offense Edge: St. Louis
Recent Play Edge: St. Louis (LARGE)
Overall Analysis: As you can see from the edges, there isn’t a whole lot going for the Phillies in this third of a four game series versus the red-hot Cardinals. St. Louis has won seven straight games and is now 33-15 at home in 2010. Garcia has been stellar for the Cards as well, while Blanton owns an ugly 7.06 ERA on the road. With trade rumors also dogging the franchise, bet Philly at your own peril.
(913) NY METS (NIESE) at (914) ARIZONA (HAREN) 9:40 PM
Line: Arizona -120, Total: 8.5
SP WHIP Edge: Arizona
BP WHIP Edge: NY Mets (LARGE)
Offense Edge: None
Recent Play Edge: None
Overall Analysis: Arizona has taken the first two games of the 3-game series versus New York, who continues to struggle on the road. The Mets are just 19-29 this season away from Citi Field, allowing opponents to bat .290. Niese has been a good stopper for them though and has put together four solid starts in a row. After losing last night as -125 favorites, an interesting trend finds MANUEL is 23-9 (+14.7 Units) against the money line revenging a loss vs opponent as a road favorite as the manager of NY METS. Don’t be surprised to see New York salvage this one.
(915) SAN FRANCISCO (ZITO) at (916) LA DODGERS (BILLINGSLEY) 10:10 PM
Line: LA Dodgers -140, Total: 7.5
SP WHIP Edge: San Francisco
BP WHIP Edge: Los Angeles
Offense Edge: None
Recent Play Edge: San Francisco (HUGE)
Overall Analysis: San Francisco is among the hottest teams in baseball right now, having won 11 of 13 games. The Dodgers have lost six straight. Despite this and the fact that Zito is enjoying the better season over Billingsley, who has been rocked in his last two starts, the Dodgers are still somewhat heavy favorites. Strangely, the money seems to be moving towards Los Angeles. Value here is clearly on the confident Giants.
(917) TAMPA BAY (SHIELDS) at (918) BALTIMORE (BERGESEN) 12:35 PM
Line: Tampa Bay -200, Total: 9.5
SP WHIP Edge: Tampa Bay (LARGE)
BP WHIP Edge: Tampa Bay (LARGE)
Offense Edge: Tampa Bay
Recent Play Edge: None
Overall Analysis: One trend is very interesting to me in this game, BALTIMORE is 6-1 (+11.9 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season this season. After last night’s huge come from behind, extra-inning win, it figures to be tough to lay the -220 against the O’s tonight, especially with a mediocre-of-late Shields getting the ball. Better plays on the board.
(919) LA ANGELS (PINEIRO) at (920) NY YANKEES (VAZQUEZ) 1:05 PM
Line: NY Yankees -175, Total: 9.0
SP WHIP Edge: NY Yankees
BP WHIP Edge: NY Yankees (LARGE)
Offense Edge: NY Yankees (LARGE)
Recent Play Edge: None
Overall Analysis: The Angels pounded Phil Hughes last night en route to a 10-2 upset as +220 dogs. Today’s revenge spot shows a strong FoxSheets system: Play Against - Home teams (NY YANKEES) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 10 or more runs, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 3.00 over his last 10 games. (33-16 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.3%, +31 units. Rating = 4*). Early money seems to be landing with New York, but everything else I look at indicates a slight over-pricing here.
(921) CLEVELAND (WESTBROOK) at (922) MINNESOTA (LIRIANO) 1:10 PM
Line: Minnesota -220, Total: 8
SP WHIP Edge: Minnesota
BP WHIP Edge: Minnesota (LARGE)
Offense Edge: Minnesota (LARGE)
Recent Play Edge: Cleveland
Overall Analysis: Minnesota hasn’t been this large of a favorite since May 8th. The difference here and then is that the Twins were playing far better baseball at that point in the season. They are just 9-16 in their L25 games now including back-to-back losses in this series in which they have yielded 30 hits to the Indians. Cleveland has won six games in a row and is playing as good as it has all year. Liriano and the hosts simply aren’t worthy of this price today.
(923) TORONTO (RZEPCZYNSKI) at (924) KANSAS CITY (GREINKE) 2:10 PM
Line: Kansas City -155, Total: 8.5
SP WHIP Edge: Kansas City (LARGE)
BP WHIP Edge: Toronto
Offense Edge: None
Recent Play Edge: Toronto (LARGE)
Overall Analysis: Greinke opened as an exorbitant -170 favorite only to be bet down to -155 since. While he has pitched well of late, he certainly hasn’t commanded this type of price. Considering that the Jays have been getting it going of late with a 7-3 mark in their L10 games, including a 13-1 win last night, I’d be leery of laying the chalk here with the Royals. Good underdog spot.
(925) BOSTON (BUCHHOLZ) at (926) OAKLAND (GONZALEZ) 3:35 PM
Line: Boston -115, Total: 8
SP WHIP Edge: Boston
BP WHIP Edge: Boston
Offense Edge: None at this point
Recent Play Edge: Oakland
Overall Analysis: Boston and Oakland have split the first two games of their 3-game set, with each contest being decided by a run. Tonight’s pitching matchup is a good one, with Buchholz getting the slight edge if only for his recent prowess. At -120, the StatFox Game Estimator and Power Ratings indicate that this game is underpriced for Boston by at least 25 cents, but savvy bettors have to give consideration to the bats missing from the Red Sox lineup.
(927) TEXAS (LEWIS) at (928) DETROIT (SCHERZER) 7:05 PM
Line: Detroit -105, Total: 9
SP WHIP Edge: Texas (LARGE)
BP WHIP Edge: Texas
Offense Edge: Texas
Recent Play Edge: Texas
Overall Analysis: What in the world is going on with the Tigers? Seven straight losses coming off a lengthy stretch in which they had gone 18-8. Pitching has been a huge problem in this current skid, as they have allowed opponents to score 6.1 RPG while hitting .294. Making matters worse today is that Detroit will be facing the Rangers’ Colby Lewis, who boasts an impressive 1.115 WHIP on the season and has had incredible command, striking out 112 hitters in just shy of 116 innings. Despite the fact that the two wins this week broke a 9-game losing streak in Detroit, you have to like the Rangers’ chances at a sweep.
(929) CHI WHITE SOX (FLOYD) at (930) SEATTLE (HERNANDEZ) 10:10 PM
Line: Seattle -135, Total: 6.5
SP WHIP Edge: Seattle
BP WHIP Edge: Chicago
Offense Edge: Chicago (LARGE)
Recent Play Edge: Chicago (HUGE)
Overall Analysis: Seattle is on an extended stretch of awful play, with just a 3-14 mark in its L17 games. I can NEVER advocate backing a team like that in the role of favorite, even if its ace starting pitcher is on the hill. The White Sox have surged to the top of the Central Division and wins over the last two nights have them in the position to sweep here. I’d honestly be surprised if they don’t.
MLB: Cubs just can’t beat bad teams
2010-07-20
The Chicago Cubs haven’t been kind to their finds or faithful bettors this season. With last night’s loss to the Houston Astros, the Cubs are now 10 games under .500. More importantly, the Cubs are down 21.4 betting units for the season. Sportsbook.com expects the Cubs to eat into that negative unit number a bit tonight as they are -240 home favorites versus the Astros.
Diehard Cubs' fan Jim Belushi once starred in a movie titled "Taking Care of Business". His team certainly hasn't done that, and bettors need look no further than trends for evidence of team’s performance tendencies and the following list from FoxSheets underscore the Cubs’ ineptitude this season:
• CHICAGO CUBS are 18-31 (-24.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season. The average score was CHICAGO CUBS 3.9, OPPONENT 4.6 - (Rating = 3*)
Think about that for a second, if Chicago is 13-games below .500 against teams with losing records, it means they are 3-games over .500 against winning clubs. If the Cubs had simply only played 25-24 baseball against the league’s lesser teams, they would be only 3-1/2 games out of the Central lead right now and in contention.
• CHICAGO CUBS are 8-18 (-19.1 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .245 or worse this season. The average score was CHICAGO CUBS 3.5, OPPONENT 4.3 - (Rating = 4*)
The Cubs are 19.1 units in the hole for bettors who have backed them against the league’s worst hitting clubs this season. Strangely, pitching isn’t the problem. As you can see, they are producing only 3.5 runs per game offensively themselves against these weak hitting foes. Unfortunately, it doesn’t stop there…
• CHICAGO CUBS are 17-29 (-23.6 Units) against the money line vs. a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse this season. The average score was CHICAGO CUBS 4.5, OPPONENT 5.1 - (Rating = 3*)
Typically, teams are able to mount come from behind rallies against poor bullpens. Such has not been the case for Chicago.
• CHICAGO CUBS are 15-28 (-22.6 Units) against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game this season. The average score was CHICAGO CUBS 3.2, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 3*)
The Cubs are 13-games below .500 against teams that don’t hit a lot of home runs, returning a negative 52.5% on investment.
• CHICAGO CUBS are 7-22 (-25.2 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season this season. The average score was CHICAGO CUBS 2.9, OPPONENT 4.4 - (Rating = 6*)
Perhaps the ugliest nugget of all, Chicago is not only allowing its run-starved opponents to outscore their normal averages, it’s own offense is producing just 2.9 runs per game on this trend. With an ROI of -86.9%, this trend gets a 6* rating from FoxSheets.
And finally…
• CHICAGO CUBS are 6-15 (-19.7 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -150 or more this season. The average score was CHICAGO CUBS 3.7, OPPONENT 4.9 - (Rating = 5*)
Chicago is 9-games under .500 when playing to its biggest chalk lines this season. Of course, this will be put to test tonight, as the Cubs are hefty -240 favorites at Sportsbook.com against the Astros behind Ryan Dempster. The Cubs are just 9-16 (-11.9 units) over the last two years in divisional play behind Dempster, and 15-26 overall versus Central Division rivals in 2010.
Meanwhile, the Astros boast a 21-16 divisional record this season, producing 11.9 units of profit. They will turn the ball over to Wesley Wright, who after 126 MLB relief appearances and a recent stint in Triple-A, makes his first career start.
Now that you know some of the key numbers for tonight’s game, head over to Sportsbook.com and place your bets. With some of the most generous dime lines the industry has to offer, it is no wonder that everybody bets on baseball at Sportsbook.com.
