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MLB: Josh Johnson: Worth your betting dollar2010-07-27
One pitcher has dominated the National League like no other over the course of the last three months and his name is not Tim Lince Programa Descuentos Deportivos
cum, Roy Halladay, or Ubaldo Jimenez. Rather, it is Josh Johnson, who has rather quietly emerged from the shadow of those other aces to become one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball. He is on a roll like no other of late, and oddsmakers are having trouble gauging just how good he has been when setting their prices. For instance, for Tuesday’s game against Matt Cain and the Giants, bettors at Sportsbook.com can back Johnson’s Marlins at around even money.
The Marlins have climbed back over .500 by going 13-6 since Independence Day. Some of the credit during that surge has to go to Johnson, who is 3-0 in his starts during the surge. However, his complete domination traces back to long beyond that.
Johnson (10-3, 1.61 ERA) has not allowed more than two runs in his last 13 starts, going 7-2 with a 0.79 ERA. The last pitcher to put together such a streak for 14 outings in a row was Houston's Mike Scott in 1986.
In addition, Johnson has allowed one run over his last 28 innings on the road.
Perhaps the biggest signs of how much command a pitcher has had can be shown in his strikeouts and WHIP numbers. When looking at Johnson’s numbers during that stretch, he has struck out 94 hitters in 91-1/3 innings with a WHIP of 0.876. He has also enjoyed 18 straight “quality starts”.
Although Johnson has never beaten the San Francisco Giants, he's never faced them when he's been pitching this well. As the league’s ERA leader, he looks to earn his first victory over the Giants when the Marlins continue a four-game series Tuesday night at AT&T Park.
The right-hander is 0-3 with a 3.00 ERA in four career starts against the Giants (56-44), although the Marlins (50-49) supported him with a total of five runs in those outings.
As an illustration of just how much trouble the oddsmakers are having with Johnson, most pitchers on a run like his would command prices in the -200 or higher range. For tonight, he is listed at just -120, thanks in part to San Francisco’s recent success as well as Matt Cain’s prowess.
The Giants had a four-game win streak snapped with a 4-3 loss Monday. San Francisco fell 3 1/2 games behind first-place San Diego in the NL West. Overall, they have gone 15-4 since July 5th, slightly better than Florida.
Johnson will get his first look at promising Giants rookie Buster Posey, who is batting .461 during a 19-game hitting streak. Posey - whose 39 hits this month lead the majors - is three games shy of matching Hall of Famer Willie McCovey's San Francisco rookie record set in 1959.
Cain has generally been in a good rhythm against Florida, going 3-0 with a 2.83 ERA in six starts. He has won his last two starts after the Giants had dropped his prior five appearances.
Ironically, it is Johnson’s dominance that leads to a powerful StatFox Super Situation indicating that he may be ready to fall finally on Tuesday:
• Play Against - Road favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (FLORIDA) - with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 15 games, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 5 starts. (36-17 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.9%, +25.6 units. Rating = 3*)
For as much as the Marlins have been winning, they have been doing it more with pitching.
However, that said, Johnson still might prove to be the difference, based primarily on the price and the value which comes with a pitcher of his command:
• JOHNSON is 17-7 (+10.6 Units) against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) The average score was JOHNSON 5.3, OPPONENT 3.2 - (Rating = 1*)
First pitch for this highly intriguing contest is set for 10:15 PM ET, or 7:15 PM on the left coast. The total is posted at a paltry 6.5. Even still, the StatFox Game Estimator shows a 3.3-2.9 projected win by the Giants, low enough to still take the game UNDER.
MLB: Toronto tilted towards totals system2010-06-10
The Toronto Blue Jays have been kind to bettors this season cashing in at +10 units. However, they have dropped three straight and need a victory tonight versus the Tampa Bay Rays to avoid a sweep. Sportsbook.com currently has the visiting Jays as +128 underdogs.
The Blue Jays have a Major League leading 97 home runs and are tied for second in the American League with 34 quality starts.
Since Tampa Bay (39-20, +8.5) has gone from a one of the worst teams in baseball to one the best, Toronto has had almost no success against the Rays. They are 4-19 the last three years vs. Tampa Bay, after being torpedoed 9-0 and 10-1 in the first two games of this series.
The Jays will attempt to stem the tide, sending Brett Cecil (6-2, 3.43 ERA) to the mound. The second year left-hander has allowed a total of three runs in 23 1/3 innings over his last three starts. Cecil owns a four-game winning streak and has held opponents to a .170 batting average in this stretch. Even as well as Cecil has pitched, Toronto will need some offense and is 1-10 after scoring three runs or less three straight games.
Tampa Bay is 18-6 against left-handed starters this season and will look to get Wade Davis (5-5, 5.03) back on track, as he has a 10.80 ERA in his last three starts.
Sportsbook.com has Toronto as +128 money line underdogs, but more importantly the Blue Jays fit a ‘totals’ system for the final game of the series that is listed at 9 runs.
Play UNDER on all teams like Toronto when the total is 9 to 9.5, after scoring one run or less two straight games, against opponent after scoring 10 runs or more.
Dating back 13 years, this system is a money-making 31-8, 79.5 percent; with the average total score of 7.7 runs per game. Other circumstances also lend themselves to this being a winning play as Toronto is 17-5 UNDER after permitting 10 runs or more and Tampa Bay is 10-2 UNDER at Tropicana Field with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 15 games.
With home plate umpire Mike Winters 8-5 UNDER behind the plate, the odds could be your favor for this action this evening.
Don’t let these one-sided trends pass you buy, head over to Sportsbook.com now to wager on this or any other game on the Thursday MLB docket.